Early Predictions for 2019 Oscars (February 2020 is so close!)

The smoke has just barely cleared from the 91st annual Academy Awards so of course we have to move on to the next one already. The next ceremony is about three weeks earlier next year which means late breaking films will have less time than usual to enter into the race. Usually a couple films every year are still filming late into spring and are able to make it in just under the wire. However that just seems a lot less likely with the nominations moving up next year. That will likely push several 2019 films into the next year. Even with this development 2019 looks stacked on paper with many big directors releasing their latest offerings. Jordan Peele's Us starts us off in just a couple weeks. Quentin Tarantino, Martin Scorsese, Pedro Almodóvar, and Steven Soderbergh all are prior Oscar winners releasing in this calendar year. Greta Gerwig releases her sophomore film Little Women, and we have potential new releases from Chloe Zhao, Benh Zeitlin, Todd Haynes and Wes Anderson.

It will be fun to see a year from now which films end up pulling ahead, but for now my gut is saying they finally reward Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He has never won the directing prize and there is nothing the Academy loves more than films about Hollywood.

For these predictions I am not including Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch or Benh Zeitlin's Wendy until we have confirmation that they will be released this year.

March Predictions (Predicted winners in BOLD)

Best Picture
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Little Women
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Jojo Rabbit
The Report
Pain and Glory
Rocketman
Us
Nomadland

Other Contenders:
The Last Thing He Wanted
The Laundromat
Dry Run
Knives Out
The King
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Harriet
Cats
Queen & Slim

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain and Glory

Other Contenders:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Haynes, Dry Run
Steven Soderbergh, The Laundromat
Jordan Peele, Us
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window
Lupita Nyong'o, Us

Other Contenders:
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Downhill (I will predict her if it is a 2019 release.)
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Kristen Stewart, Against All Enemies
Charlize Theron, Fair & Balanced

Best Actor 
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Mark Ruffalo, Dry Run
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy

Other Contenders:
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, The Report
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Timothée Chalamet, The King
Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Will Ferrell, Downhill
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Little Women
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Other Contenders:
Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Meryl Streep, Little Women
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Janelle Monae, Harriet
Bryce Dallas Howard, Rocketman
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
Anne Hathaway, Dry Run
Toni Collette, Knives Out
Jamie Lee Curtis, Knives Out
Emma Watson, Little Women

Best Supporting Actor
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Jamie Bell, Rocketman
Timothy Olyphant, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Other Contenders:
Willem Dafoe, The Last Thing He Wanted
Timothée Chalamet, Little Women
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Richard Madden, Rocketman
John Lithgow, Fair & Balanced
Robert Pattinson, The King

Predicted Winners:
Picture: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Director: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Actress: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Actor: Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Little Women
Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The Irishman
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adapted Screenplay: Little Women

My Film Awards for 2018

Another year has bit the dust and so it's time for my annual awards for the best in film. 2018 was a strange year in that it only delivered two five-star film in my ratings, but from top to bottom it was a strong year. Very few films really bombed for me (The Mule being the big one) and I even found many films to be unfairly maligned. The year before delivered seven five-star films. However things quickly fell off after those seven films so it was nice to have a good balance of solid films throughout the year. 

 Lead Actress was the toughest category like usual. I had originally made this post with Glenn Close making it in for The Wife, but couldn't hit submit without including Lady Gaga for her role as Ally in A Star is Born. Gaga replaced Close at the last second, but Close is likely winning the Oscar for her great turn and it will be well earned. Elsie Fisher, Melissa McCarthy and Helena Howard were also very close to making the list. I had already claimed Toni Collette as my favorite working actress prior to this year, but her career-best turn in Hereditary even blew away my expectations. The dinner scene should be shown in acting classes for years to come. 

Unlike the Oscars my Lead Actor category is full of performances from the younger crowd. Strange to think of Ryan Gosling as the third oldest nominee in a category. Bradley Cooper's growling rock star and Ethan Hawke's idealistic minister both put up a strong fight, but Charlie Plummer's performance as a young man dealing with loss was my choice for the best of the year. Lucas Hedges earned his third straight nomination but his first in lead for his turn in Boy Erased.

Timmy Chalamet wins his second acting award in as many years. Last year he won my Best Actor award for his all-time great performance in Call Me By Your Name and followed it up this year with his fantastic supporting turn as a young man dealing with addiction in Beautiful Boy. I have a feeling at age 23 this won't be the last acting award that I give to him. He's quickly proving to be one of cinema's best talents. 

Supporting Actress went to Emma Stone for her turn as the class climbing Abigail in The Favourite. I had trouble deciding if she was lead or supporting (along with Weisz and Colman from the same film and Erivo as well.) Ultimately went along with where the studio campaigned her which was supporting to Olivia Colman's Queen Anne. This is Stone's first win after four nominations. 

Best Director was another hard category this year as I found many strong choices without a clear cut set of nominees. Paul Schrader, Barry Jenkins, Yorgos Lanthimos and Lee Chang-dong were all strong choices that I had to leave just on the outside. Ultimately I went with Spike Lee for BlackkKlansman.

Original Screenplay was the single greatest challenge in deciding between The Favourite, First Reformed and Eighth Grade. Adapted was much easier as BlackkKlansman was the winner for me there with Can You Ever Forgive Me? a close second.

Anyway enough of my rambling, here are my awards for the best films of 2018. Winners are in BOLD and are also listed at the end.

Thanks for reading and I hope this list might inspire you to see a film or two that you may have avoided otherwise. 

Best Picture

BlackkKlansman

Burning

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

Hereditary

Minding the Gap

Best Actress

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Carey Mulligan, Wildlife

Charlize Theron, Tully

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Charlie Plummer, Lean on Pete

Nick Robinson, Love, Simon

Best Supporting Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Blake Lively, A Simple Favor

Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Na-kel Smith, Mid90s

Alex Wolff, Hereditary

Steven Yeun, Burning

Best Director

Ari Aster, Hereditary

Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade

Josephine Decker, Madeline's Madeline

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman 

Chloé Zhao, The Rider

Best Score

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Madeline's Madeline

Suspiria

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

First Reformed

Hereditary

Sorry To Bother You

Tully

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlackkKlansman

Burning

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

The Tale

Widows

Best Editing

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Minding The Gap

The Other Side of the Wind

Roma

Suspiria

Best Cinematography

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

If Beale Street Could Talk

Madeline's Madeline

Minding the Gap

The Rider

Roma

Production Design

Black Panther

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Paddington 2

Roma

Suspiria

Best Original Song

"Alfie's Song (Not So Typical Love Song)" (Bleachers) 

from

Love, Simon

"All The Stars" (Kendrick Lamar & Sza)

from Black Panther

"Always Remember Us This Way" (Lady Gaga)

from A Star is Born

"Revelation" (Troye Sivan & Jonsi)

from Boy Erased

"Shallow" (Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper)

from A Star is Born

"Suspirium" (Thom Yorke) 

from Suspiria

List of Winners:

Best Picture: Hereditary

Best Director: Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman

Best Actress: Toni Collette, Hereditary

Best Actor: Charlie Plummer, Lean on Pete

Best Supporting Actress: Emma Stone, The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite

Best Adapted Screenplay: BlackkKlansman

Best Editing: The Other Side of the Wind

Best Cinematography: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Production Design: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Song: "Always Remember Us This Way" from A Star is Born

Oscar Predictions - Nov 20 (critics awards are about to begin!)

(Roma)

NOVEMBER OSCAR PREDICTIONS

As we approach Thanksgiving, the critics are about to unleash their picks for the best in film for 2018. The critics can help clear up the race or make it murkier. Last year Laurie Metcalf, Timothee Chalamet and Willem Dafoe seemed to be the critics favorite, but when the televised awards came around Allison Janney, Gary Oldman and Sam Rockwell swept their categories. However the critics can help bring attention to an underseen or early in the year contender that can result in them making it to the party.

Next month at this time many organizations will have announced their winners and the Golden Globes and SAG will have announced their nominees, so the picture will be much clearer.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

November Predictions: (October's Predictions in parenthesis)

Best Picture:

1. A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Roma (2, =)

3. Vice (7, +4)

4. The Favourite (4, =)

5. Black Panther (6, +1)

6. Green Book (3, -3)

7. BlackkKlansman (8, +1)

8. Widows (5, -3)

9. First Man (9, =)

Other Contenders:

Mary Poppins Returns

If Beale Street Could Talk

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Crazy Rich Asians

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Adam McKay, Vice (New)

Drop Outs:

Damien Chazelle, First Man (5)

Other Contenders:

Steve McQueen, Widows

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2,=)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (3, =)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (New)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (4, -1)

Drop Outs:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (5)

Other Contenders: 
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actress:
1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, -1)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3,=)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (5,+1)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Drop Outs:
Viola Davis, Widows (4)

Other Contenders: 
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (1, =)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (2,-2)

5. Steve Carell, Vice (New)

Drop Outs:

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other Contenders:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1,=)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2,=)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3,=)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Drop Outs:

Claire Foy, First Man (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Oscar Predictions - October 23rd

                 (Lady Gaga - A Star is Born, Toni Collette - Hereditary, Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy, Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther)

We're another month closer to the Oscars. Since last month we've had some of the remaining questions answered for the upcoming awards season. Olivia Colman will be going in lead for The Favourite with Weisz (and likely Stone) in supporting. Vice finally released a trailer, Christian Bale seems to be a lock for a nomination and Amy Adams is in it to win it (finally!) for playing Lynne Cheney. Bohemian Rhapsody's reviews aren't lighting the world on fire, and it will be interesting to see if Rami Malek can still contend in a weak year for the category.

A Star is Born still seems to be in the driver's seat, but we know how quickly things can change. The film seems to be hitting culturally in a way that most recent best picture winners haven't, and that is a major strength in its corner. Roma is still right behind it, but I am curious to see how big Green Book can get. We're about a month away from the National Board of Review announcing their picks, and then we'll really be rolling along towards the ceremony.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

September's ranking is in parenthesis.

October Oscar Predictions:

(Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book)

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. Green Book (5, +2)
4. The Favourite (3, -1)
5. Widows (6, +1)
6. Black Panther (7, +1)
7. Vice (9, +2)
8. BlackkKlansman (8, =)
9. First Man (3, -6)

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians

Outlook:
A Star is Born just seems way too big to falter at this point, but Roma will try to bring down Goliath. However I do think Roma will end up preventing A Star is Born from sweeping the big 5 awards. Green Book seems like a film that would have won this award in the 90's, but it could come close again if backlash starts against Star. First Man falls down the rankings since it didn't take off at the box office, but I do think it is safe for a nomination.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Outlook:

Roma will get its love here, I don't think there will be much of a fight. Cooper will win elsewhere.

(Viola Davis in Widows)

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3, =)
4. Viola Davis, Widows (5, +1)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, -1)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Outlook:

Gaga vs. Close vs. Colman. I think Gaga and Colman will win the Globes, Colman will win BAFTA and Close/Gaga will face off for SAG. We could be in for a very exciting race in this category. However if Colman takes SAG (like she could) or Gaga/Close take BAFTA then the race will likely be heading in the direction of that winner. I do wonder if the academy will be biased against Gaga, but the film is so loved and she seems to be charming people at the Q&As so I do think she is the frontrunner for now. Aparicio and Collette should do well with the critics, and could boost over McCarthy. At one point I thought McCarthy was winning, but her buzz seems to be fading. However it would be so strange if Richard E. Grant got in and she didn't.

(Ethan Hawke in First Reformed)

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2, =)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (4, +1)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (3, -1)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (New)

Out:

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (5)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Outlook:

Cooper is winning, the question now is who else gets invited to the party? Malek has great individual reviews, but the film is getting burned. He has the role, but I think Hawke may sneak in over him now.

(Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk)

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3, =)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (New)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (4, -1)

Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Outlook:

Amy Adams should be very thankful that Olivia Colman went lead. She still has fierce competition, but it does feel like her time. King should contend, and her path would likely begin with SAG. Finally moved Weisz up since we know for sure that Colman is lead, all three ladies should be safe.

(Lin-Manuel Miranda in Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (2, +1)

2. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2, -2)

5. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (5)

Other Contenders:

Jonathan Pryce, The Wife

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Outlook:

Ali looks likely to be collecting his second Oscar in a couple months. Chalamet has the reviews to win, but he will likely be the only shot at a nomination for his film, and that plus his age will hold him back. Elliott could win, but I can't imagine A Star is Born winning three acting awards. He'd make sense though as a winner. Miranda is just a feeling I have, but a smarter bet would probably be with Pryce.

Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born

   

(Lady Gaga in A Star is Born)

    Let me start off by saying Bradley Cooper gives the performance of his career in A Star is Born, and I thought he was Oscar-worthy in Silver Linings Playbook and American Sniper. However even as a huge fan of Lady Gaga, I wasn't prepared for how great she wound up being as Ally. The unknown in the first half to the star of the second half, it's all so believable and she would be a great Oscar winner.

    I'm going to have a hard time deciding between Gaga and Toni Collette for my Best Actress award. Toni Collette is my favorite actress of all-time, giving her best performance and I really wasn't expecting her to have any competition, but Gaga IS THAT GREAT. That final shot is the stuff of legends.

                                                         (Toni Collette in Hereditary)

Oscar Predictions - September 26th (Post Venice/TIFF/Telluride)

While we wait for a few stragglers to screen (looking at you Vice/Cheney/Backseat/Whatever that Dick Cheney movie is going to be called!) everything has essentially been seen and judged by the powers that decide what films get to play in the awards season circus. This means we can try to wade through the water and further predict the upcoming Academy Awards.

The major remaining questions:
Will the Academy (along with SAG and BAFTA) treat Lady Gaga closer to how they treated Cher or Madonna? Cher of course was nominated for a couple acting Oscars and won for Moonstruck. Madonna won a golden globe for Evita, (over Frances McDormand the eventual Oscar winner for Fargo) but did not receive an Oscar nomination. I think the film is strong enough to get Gaga a nomination, but will the Academy make her wait for another film to get a win? The likely option is that they will be swept up in the love of the film and she will be a major contender for the win.

What's A24 going to champion the most? They have three out-there contenders. Hereditary, Eighth Grade and First Reformed are all unlikely contenders, but all three are fantastic with rave reviews behind them. Eighth Grade and First Reformed both seem likely contenders in Original Screenplay, but Hereditary star Toni Collette has the best reviews awhile being in the toughest film for the Academy. Ethan Hawke should be a major contender too for First Reformed. A24 has quickly become a powerhouse campaigner, but can they get all three films into contention? Can they get any? I hope so because all three films deserve to be at the Dolby. (Alert to my biases here, Toni Collette is my favorite working actress and Bo Burnham is someone that I've claimed as a genius for as long as I can remember.)

Vice is a film about Dick Cheney, we know nothing else about it. Is it as baity as most biopics? I imagine in the hands of Adam McKay it will be a bit subversive. I think Vice's best shot is Amy Adams in supporting.

Where are The Favourite ladies going????????? WHO IS LEAD????????

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

August's ranking is in parenthesis.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. The Favourite (7, +4)
4. First Man (4, =)
5. Green Book (New)
6. Widows (New)
7. Black Panther (8, +1)
8. BlackkKlansman (6, -2)
9. Vice (10, +1)

Out:
The Other Side of the Wind
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My Thoughts:
A Star is Born will be the more popular pick and I see it winning out over the artsier Roma in this category. The Favourite will be the dark house here.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (2, +1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (New)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Out:

Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (1)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

My Thoughts:

Roma vs. A Star is Born seems to be the battle of the night. Roma is supposed to be a technical marvel, and I don't see Cooper winning four Oscars in one night, but who knows?

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (3, +2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (New)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (2, -1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (1, -3)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (5, =)

Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary (4)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:
Glenn Close will have the overdue narrative, Colman has amazing reviews, McCarthy is the biggest movie star, Davis is entering Meryl Streep territory, but Gaga really feels like she's going to take this home. As strange as that would have seemed three months ago. Gaga will likely also pick up Best Original Song for "Shallow."

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1,=)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (3, +1)

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (5, +2)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (New)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, (4, -1)

Out:

John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind (2)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun

My Thoughts:

Cooper should be the easiest win of the night. Malek and Bale haven't been seen yet, but both roles should be baity enough to get in. Mortensen came out of nowhere, but would be a huge threat to win without Cooper here.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (New)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (4, =)

5. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (3, -2)

Out: 

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (5)

Other Contenders:

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:

Academy Award Winner Amy Adams sounds nice doesn't it? Only thing I see in the way of that is if Olivia Colman goes supporting. Rachel Weisz should probably be in this category, but I see them wanting to bring Crazy Rich Asians to the party and Yeoh seems like the best chance outside of like production design. 

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +3)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (New)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (2, -1)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (New)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (New)

Out:

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (1)

Sam Rockwell, Vice (3)

Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back (5)

Other Contenders:

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

My Thoughts:

Chalamet has the best reviews in the category, but his film is very divisive and he might be the only nomination for it. (If he even gets in.) Ali has a crowd pleasing film, but he just won for Moonlight. He might still win anyway. Grant has a flashy role and is a veteran. He fits the mold that normally wins this category. Elliott should get carried in by the love of the film and the respect he carries. Jordan is a question mark, but he seems in a good place to be carried in by the love of Black Panther, plus he's been snubbed a couple times before. It just feels like his time finally.

Bye, Bye Best Popular Film Category

Today, the Academy decided to get rid of their new Best Popular Film category.

Can we all just agree that this is a great move. What would even be the cutoff for a "popular" film? It's not like the Academy is nominating films that make 200 bucks at the Box Office.

Plus it just seemed like a cheap way for them to try and get blockbusters nominated. By putting them in some new category with no prestige they wouldn't have brought a new audience. People can see through bogus attempts at pulling in bigger numbers. If you want those viewers then you'll have to get them into Best Picture. The Oscars just never recovered from snubbing The Dark Knight, they've changed so many policies and categories and just can't seem to hit something they like.

Now we just need them to turn back their decision of sending some of the tech categories to the commercial breaks. The audience for the Oscars wants to see the awards! Casual viewers can just watch the best of clips the next morning on Youtube. Someone that is watching the whole show, wants to see all the awards! People worked their whole lives for this moment and you can't show Best Editing on the main telecast? How lame! How about getting rid of a couple of the skits that always seem to be shoved into the broadcast. Did we really need Armie Hammer shooting hot dogs into an audience that just wanted to see A Wrinkle in Time?

Pre-Festival Oscar Predictions

                                               
We are just hours away from the beginning of the fall festival season. Venice, Telluride and Toronto will give us most of the information we need to know for the upcoming awards season, and for our own personal taste of things to see and turds to avoid.

The festivals should answer some of the big questions that are currently in limbo...Where will The Favourite ladies be placed? Is Lady Gaga a contender in Best Actress? Will The Other Side of The Wind be a final contender for the late, great Orson Welles? Are Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased strong enough to get Timmy Chalamet and Lucas Hedges back to the Dolby despite their age disadvantages? Jenkins, McQueen and Chazelle have big shoes to fill after their last films, will they hold up to the pressure?

These are my current predictions for Best Director, Best Picture, and the acting categories. I usually don't do the below-the-line categories until closer to the ceremony.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. The Other Side of the Wind
4. First Man
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6. BlackkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Black Panther
9. Beautiful Boy
10.Backseat

For now the buzz behind A Star is Born seems strong enough to push it to Best Picture. The Other Side of the Wind and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs are both question marks, Welles' film has been on the shelf for forty years and I'm not sure how the Academy will respond. The Coens film wasn't a film originally and will be interesting to see how their intended TV series transitions until a film. Roma is supposedly great AND timely, but will the Academy bite? Black Panther might get screwed by this "Best Popular Film" category as I do think it would have made the lineup before that category was invented, but now it might get pushed into that side category.

Best Director:
1. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

They are getting another chance to reward Orson Welles...will they? I'm going to predict it, but I could easily see another Oscar win in this category for Chazelle, Cuarón or The Coens. However Spike Lee should be in contention here and could finally get a win in this category. Bradley Cooper will probably be happy with a nomination here and a win in Best Actor.

Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind
3. Christian Bale, Backseat
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Cooper is an Academy favorite in a passion project, he sings, he drinks, I see this being his trophy. The rest of this category is a big ol' question mark. I'm very high on The Other Side of the Wind...perhaps too high? Backseat only exists through set photos, I feel less confident in its chances everyday. Malek seems great in Bohemian Rhapsody, will the Singer controversy strike the film though? Gosling should be good to go for First Man even if some test screening buzz wasn't so high.

Best Actress:
1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Toni Collette, Hereditary
5. Viola Davis, Widows

McCarthy has had a rough year, but she's a former nominee and this seems up the Academy's alley. Close has the reviews and overdue narrative in her favor, but the film feels like a blip that's just keeping afloat because of Close. I guess it could be her Still Alice. Gaga has great buzz, but will she be invited to the party like Cher or be shut-out like the woman she's constantly compared with...Madonna. Collette has the reviews of the year, but is the film too controversial and out-there for them? I think A24 will get her in. Davis seems like she's entering Meryl Streep territory and will get in for most anything, but especially a McQueen film. I have Olivia Colman just missing out here, but she could win the category if the reviews are strong tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
3. Sam Rockwell in Backseat
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

This category is a crapshoot...I have no idea here. Nelson seems like the type of winner this category usually has, but he could be lead or not even have the juiciest part in the film. We don't know much yet. Chalamet has strong buzz, but the film might only contend for him and I'm not sure that's enough. His age was hard to bet against for a first nomination, let alone a second one. However he also seems like he could be a potential winner here. I've been predicting him all year, so I won't quit now. Hedges has three buzzy roles coming up, supporting in Ben is Back and Mid-90's and lead in Boy Erased. I think he gets in somewhere, but not sure where yet. This feels much more open than the lead category. I think Grant has a fun part and can coat-tail off of McCarthy. Rockwell gets his follow-up nod.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Backseat
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Amy is coming for her Oscar.