While we wait for a few stragglers to screen (looking at you Vice/Cheney/Backseat/Whatever that Dick Cheney movie is going to be called!) everything has essentially been seen and judged by the powers that decide what films get to play in the awards season circus. This means we can try to wade through the water and further predict the upcoming Academy Awards.
The major remaining questions:
Will the Academy (along with SAG and BAFTA) treat Lady Gaga closer to how they treated Cher or Madonna? Cher of course was nominated for a couple acting Oscars and won for Moonstruck. Madonna won a golden globe for Evita, (over Frances McDormand the eventual Oscar winner for Fargo) but did not receive an Oscar nomination. I think the film is strong enough to get Gaga a nomination, but will the Academy make her wait for another film to get a win? The likely option is that they will be swept up in the love of the film and she will be a major contender for the win.
What's A24 going to champion the most? They have three out-there contenders. Hereditary, Eighth Grade and First Reformed are all unlikely contenders, but all three are fantastic with rave reviews behind them. Eighth Grade and First Reformed both seem likely contenders in Original Screenplay, but Hereditary star Toni Collette has the best reviews awhile being in the toughest film for the Academy. Ethan Hawke should be a major contender too for First Reformed. A24 has quickly become a powerhouse campaigner, but can they get all three films into contention? Can they get any? I hope so because all three films deserve to be at the Dolby. (Alert to my biases here, Toni Collette is my favorite working actress and Bo Burnham is someone that I've claimed as a genius for as long as I can remember.)
Vice is a film about Dick Cheney, we know nothing else about it. Is it as baity as most biopics? I imagine in the hands of Adam McKay it will be a bit subversive. I think Vice's best shot is Amy Adams in supporting.
Where are The Favourite ladies going????????? WHO IS LEAD????????
****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****
August's ranking is in parenthesis.
Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. The Favourite (7, +4)
4. First Man (4, =)
5. Green Book (New)
6. Widows (New)
7. Black Panther (8, +1)
8. BlackkKlansman (6, -2)
9. Vice (10, +1)
Out:
The Other Side of the Wind
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy
Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
My Thoughts:
A Star is Born will be the more popular pick and I see it winning out over the artsier Roma in this category. The Favourite will be the dark house here.
Best Director:
1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (2, +1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (4, +2)
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (New)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)
Out:
Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (1)
Other Contenders:
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Steve McQueen, Widows
Adam McKay, Vice
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
My Thoughts:
Roma vs. A Star is Born seems to be the battle of the night. Roma is supposed to be a technical marvel, and I don't see Cooper winning four Oscars in one night, but who knows?
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (3, +2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (New)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (2, -1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (1, -3)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (5, =)
Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary (4)
Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots
My Thoughts:
Glenn Close will have the overdue narrative, Colman has amazing reviews, McCarthy is the biggest movie star, Davis is entering Meryl Streep territory, but Gaga really feels like she's going to take this home. As strange as that would have seemed three months ago. Gaga will likely also pick up Best Original Song for "Shallow."
Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1,=)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (3, +1)
3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (5, +2)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (New)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, (4, -1)
Out:
John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind (2)
Other Contenders:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
My Thoughts:
Cooper should be the easiest win of the night. Malek and Bale haven't been seen yet, but both roles should be baity enough to get in. Mortensen came out of nowhere, but would be a huge threat to win without Cooper here.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)
3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (New)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (4, =)
5. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (3, -2)
Out:
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (5)
Other Contenders:
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Linda Cardellini, Green Book
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
My Thoughts:
Academy Award Winner Amy Adams sounds nice doesn't it? Only thing I see in the way of that is if Olivia Colman goes supporting. Rachel Weisz should probably be in this category, but I see them wanting to bring Crazy Rich Asians to the party and Yeoh seems like the best chance outside of like production design.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +3)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (New)
3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (2, -1)
4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (New)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (New)
Out:
Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (1)
Sam Rockwell, Vice (3)
Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back (5)
Other Contenders:
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
My Thoughts:
Chalamet has the best reviews in the category, but his film is very divisive and he might be the only nomination for it. (If he even gets in.) Ali has a crowd pleasing film, but he just won for Moonlight. He might still win anyway. Grant has a flashy role and is a veteran. He fits the mold that normally wins this category. Elliott should get carried in by the love of the film and the respect he carries. Jordan is a question mark, but he seems in a good place to be carried in by the love of Black Panther, plus he's been snubbed a couple times before. It just feels like his time finally.
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