Oscar Predictions - October 23rd

                 (Lady Gaga - A Star is Born, Toni Collette - Hereditary, Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy, Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther)

We're another month closer to the Oscars. Since last month we've had some of the remaining questions answered for the upcoming awards season. Olivia Colman will be going in lead for The Favourite with Weisz (and likely Stone) in supporting. Vice finally released a trailer, Christian Bale seems to be a lock for a nomination and Amy Adams is in it to win it (finally!) for playing Lynne Cheney. Bohemian Rhapsody's reviews aren't lighting the world on fire, and it will be interesting to see if Rami Malek can still contend in a weak year for the category.

A Star is Born still seems to be in the driver's seat, but we know how quickly things can change. The film seems to be hitting culturally in a way that most recent best picture winners haven't, and that is a major strength in its corner. Roma is still right behind it, but I am curious to see how big Green Book can get. We're about a month away from the National Board of Review announcing their picks, and then we'll really be rolling along towards the ceremony.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

September's ranking is in parenthesis.

October Oscar Predictions:

(Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book)

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. Green Book (5, +2)
4. The Favourite (3, -1)
5. Widows (6, +1)
6. Black Panther (7, +1)
7. Vice (9, +2)
8. BlackkKlansman (8, =)
9. First Man (3, -6)

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians

Outlook:
A Star is Born just seems way too big to falter at this point, but Roma will try to bring down Goliath. However I do think Roma will end up preventing A Star is Born from sweeping the big 5 awards. Green Book seems like a film that would have won this award in the 90's, but it could come close again if backlash starts against Star. First Man falls down the rankings since it didn't take off at the box office, but I do think it is safe for a nomination.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Outlook:

Roma will get its love here, I don't think there will be much of a fight. Cooper will win elsewhere.

(Viola Davis in Widows)

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3, =)
4. Viola Davis, Widows (5, +1)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, -1)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Outlook:

Gaga vs. Close vs. Colman. I think Gaga and Colman will win the Globes, Colman will win BAFTA and Close/Gaga will face off for SAG. We could be in for a very exciting race in this category. However if Colman takes SAG (like she could) or Gaga/Close take BAFTA then the race will likely be heading in the direction of that winner. I do wonder if the academy will be biased against Gaga, but the film is so loved and she seems to be charming people at the Q&As so I do think she is the frontrunner for now. Aparicio and Collette should do well with the critics, and could boost over McCarthy. At one point I thought McCarthy was winning, but her buzz seems to be fading. However it would be so strange if Richard E. Grant got in and she didn't.

(Ethan Hawke in First Reformed)

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2, =)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (4, +1)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (3, -1)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (New)

Out:

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (5)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Outlook:

Cooper is winning, the question now is who else gets invited to the party? Malek has great individual reviews, but the film is getting burned. He has the role, but I think Hawke may sneak in over him now.

(Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk)

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3, =)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (New)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (4, -1)

Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Outlook:

Amy Adams should be very thankful that Olivia Colman went lead. She still has fierce competition, but it does feel like her time. King should contend, and her path would likely begin with SAG. Finally moved Weisz up since we know for sure that Colman is lead, all three ladies should be safe.

(Lin-Manuel Miranda in Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (2, +1)

2. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2, -2)

5. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (5)

Other Contenders:

Jonathan Pryce, The Wife

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Outlook:

Ali looks likely to be collecting his second Oscar in a couple months. Chalamet has the reviews to win, but he will likely be the only shot at a nomination for his film, and that plus his age will hold him back. Elliott could win, but I can't imagine A Star is Born winning three acting awards. He'd make sense though as a winner. Miranda is just a feeling I have, but a smarter bet would probably be with Pryce.

Pre-Festival Oscar Predictions

                                               
We are just hours away from the beginning of the fall festival season. Venice, Telluride and Toronto will give us most of the information we need to know for the upcoming awards season, and for our own personal taste of things to see and turds to avoid.

The festivals should answer some of the big questions that are currently in limbo...Where will The Favourite ladies be placed? Is Lady Gaga a contender in Best Actress? Will The Other Side of The Wind be a final contender for the late, great Orson Welles? Are Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased strong enough to get Timmy Chalamet and Lucas Hedges back to the Dolby despite their age disadvantages? Jenkins, McQueen and Chazelle have big shoes to fill after their last films, will they hold up to the pressure?

These are my current predictions for Best Director, Best Picture, and the acting categories. I usually don't do the below-the-line categories until closer to the ceremony.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. The Other Side of the Wind
4. First Man
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6. BlackkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Black Panther
9. Beautiful Boy
10.Backseat

For now the buzz behind A Star is Born seems strong enough to push it to Best Picture. The Other Side of the Wind and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs are both question marks, Welles' film has been on the shelf for forty years and I'm not sure how the Academy will respond. The Coens film wasn't a film originally and will be interesting to see how their intended TV series transitions until a film. Roma is supposedly great AND timely, but will the Academy bite? Black Panther might get screwed by this "Best Popular Film" category as I do think it would have made the lineup before that category was invented, but now it might get pushed into that side category.

Best Director:
1. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

They are getting another chance to reward Orson Welles...will they? I'm going to predict it, but I could easily see another Oscar win in this category for Chazelle, Cuarón or The Coens. However Spike Lee should be in contention here and could finally get a win in this category. Bradley Cooper will probably be happy with a nomination here and a win in Best Actor.

Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind
3. Christian Bale, Backseat
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Cooper is an Academy favorite in a passion project, he sings, he drinks, I see this being his trophy. The rest of this category is a big ol' question mark. I'm very high on The Other Side of the Wind...perhaps too high? Backseat only exists through set photos, I feel less confident in its chances everyday. Malek seems great in Bohemian Rhapsody, will the Singer controversy strike the film though? Gosling should be good to go for First Man even if some test screening buzz wasn't so high.

Best Actress:
1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Toni Collette, Hereditary
5. Viola Davis, Widows

McCarthy has had a rough year, but she's a former nominee and this seems up the Academy's alley. Close has the reviews and overdue narrative in her favor, but the film feels like a blip that's just keeping afloat because of Close. I guess it could be her Still Alice. Gaga has great buzz, but will she be invited to the party like Cher or be shut-out like the woman she's constantly compared with...Madonna. Collette has the reviews of the year, but is the film too controversial and out-there for them? I think A24 will get her in. Davis seems like she's entering Meryl Streep territory and will get in for most anything, but especially a McQueen film. I have Olivia Colman just missing out here, but she could win the category if the reviews are strong tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
3. Sam Rockwell in Backseat
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

This category is a crapshoot...I have no idea here. Nelson seems like the type of winner this category usually has, but he could be lead or not even have the juiciest part in the film. We don't know much yet. Chalamet has strong buzz, but the film might only contend for him and I'm not sure that's enough. His age was hard to bet against for a first nomination, let alone a second one. However he also seems like he could be a potential winner here. I've been predicting him all year, so I won't quit now. Hedges has three buzzy roles coming up, supporting in Ben is Back and Mid-90's and lead in Boy Erased. I think he gets in somewhere, but not sure where yet. This feels much more open than the lead category. I think Grant has a fun part and can coat-tail off of McCarthy. Rockwell gets his follow-up nod.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Backseat
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Amy is coming for her Oscar.

The official stanning list of 2018

2018's award season is shaping up to be a very strong year for some of my favorite actors.

Toni Collette has received rave reviews for Hereditary. Collette is near the top of my list of favorite working actors (if not #1!) and is well overdue for a second Oscar nomination. Hopefully she can carry through up to the stage.

Saoirse Ronan has a strong-on-paper role in Mary, Queen of Scots. I'm sure she'll kill the role, hope the film lives up to her performance.

Lady Gaga isn't one of my favorite actresses, but she is one of my favorite singers and she has great buzz for A Star is Born. Maybe she'll follow Cher and Barbara Streisand to singer-turned-actress Oscar winners?

Amy Adams plays Lynn Cheney in Backseat. She's been nominated a thousand times and was snubbed for Arrival just a couple of years ago. The role seems juicy and with Adam McKay in charge it should be a little off-kilter as well. She should be a threat in supporting actress.

Ryan Gosling is one of my favorite actors, he chooses quirky roles and is thus often out of the picture for awards. However he was nominated for La La Land, and now plays Neil Armstrong in First Man from Damien Chazelle, and hopefully he will win the trophy.

Timmy Chalamet gave one of my favorite performances of all-time last year in Call Me By Your Name, and he seems to have a juicy role in Beautiful Boy. Test screenings have given him a ton of praise and hopefully the Academy makes up for their mistake last year.




AND OF COURSE there will be some performances off of my radar at this moment that become my favorites. This year though seems like a bizarre year where at least one of my favorites can bring home the statue.

Last Five Best Actress Winners

It's interesting the overlap between my Best Actress winners and my Best Picture winners. Four of my last five Best Actress winners come from my choice for the #1 film of the year. The only outlier is Amy Adams in Arrival, which was a Top 3 film for me last year. I'd say all of these performances helped make the film my top of the year. 

Adèle Exarchopoulos leaves everything on the celluloid including all of the mucus in her nose. Her performance is a complete canvas for the film to use. Her performance is so raw and complex, it's an all-time great performance. Saoirse Ronan can say so much with just her face and it's simply remarkable what she does in Brooklyn. Jessica Chastain's performance in Zero Dark Thirty represents America at every turn in a post-9/11 world. When Maya can finally sit at the end after completing the job, Chastain delivers one of the best final scenes of the decade. Under that tough, cold, no-nonsense outside is the soul of Zero Dark Thirty. Arrival didn't work for me on first watch. Amy Adams did of course, but it wasn't until a re-watch where the film really clicked for me and Adams performance rose above the rest. A brilliantly subtle turn that improves on each watch. Finally there is Anne Dorval in Xavier Dolan's Mommy. Dorval is able to match the chaotic energy of the film beat for beat, we see how exhausted she is, but see the love she has for her son. 

Last Five Best Actress Winners:

2016: Amy Adams as Louise Banks in Arrival

2015: Saoirse Ronan as Eilis in Brooklyn

2014: Anne Dorval as Diane in Mommy

2013: Adèle Exarchopoulos as Adèle in Blue is the Warmest Color

2012: Jessica Chastain as Maya in Zero Dark Thirty