Oscar Predictions - October 23rd

                 (Lady Gaga - A Star is Born, Toni Collette - Hereditary, Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy, Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther)

We're another month closer to the Oscars. Since last month we've had some of the remaining questions answered for the upcoming awards season. Olivia Colman will be going in lead for The Favourite with Weisz (and likely Stone) in supporting. Vice finally released a trailer, Christian Bale seems to be a lock for a nomination and Amy Adams is in it to win it (finally!) for playing Lynne Cheney. Bohemian Rhapsody's reviews aren't lighting the world on fire, and it will be interesting to see if Rami Malek can still contend in a weak year for the category.

A Star is Born still seems to be in the driver's seat, but we know how quickly things can change. The film seems to be hitting culturally in a way that most recent best picture winners haven't, and that is a major strength in its corner. Roma is still right behind it, but I am curious to see how big Green Book can get. We're about a month away from the National Board of Review announcing their picks, and then we'll really be rolling along towards the ceremony.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

September's ranking is in parenthesis.

October Oscar Predictions:

(Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book)

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. Green Book (5, +2)
4. The Favourite (3, -1)
5. Widows (6, +1)
6. Black Panther (7, +1)
7. Vice (9, +2)
8. BlackkKlansman (8, =)
9. First Man (3, -6)

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians

Outlook:
A Star is Born just seems way too big to falter at this point, but Roma will try to bring down Goliath. However I do think Roma will end up preventing A Star is Born from sweeping the big 5 awards. Green Book seems like a film that would have won this award in the 90's, but it could come close again if backlash starts against Star. First Man falls down the rankings since it didn't take off at the box office, but I do think it is safe for a nomination.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Outlook:

Roma will get its love here, I don't think there will be much of a fight. Cooper will win elsewhere.

(Viola Davis in Widows)

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3, =)
4. Viola Davis, Widows (5, +1)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, -1)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Outlook:

Gaga vs. Close vs. Colman. I think Gaga and Colman will win the Globes, Colman will win BAFTA and Close/Gaga will face off for SAG. We could be in for a very exciting race in this category. However if Colman takes SAG (like she could) or Gaga/Close take BAFTA then the race will likely be heading in the direction of that winner. I do wonder if the academy will be biased against Gaga, but the film is so loved and she seems to be charming people at the Q&As so I do think she is the frontrunner for now. Aparicio and Collette should do well with the critics, and could boost over McCarthy. At one point I thought McCarthy was winning, but her buzz seems to be fading. However it would be so strange if Richard E. Grant got in and she didn't.

(Ethan Hawke in First Reformed)

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2, =)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (4, +1)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (3, -1)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (New)

Out:

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (5)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Outlook:

Cooper is winning, the question now is who else gets invited to the party? Malek has great individual reviews, but the film is getting burned. He has the role, but I think Hawke may sneak in over him now.

(Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk)

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3, =)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (New)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (4, -1)

Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Outlook:

Amy Adams should be very thankful that Olivia Colman went lead. She still has fierce competition, but it does feel like her time. King should contend, and her path would likely begin with SAG. Finally moved Weisz up since we know for sure that Colman is lead, all three ladies should be safe.

(Lin-Manuel Miranda in Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (2, +1)

2. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2, -2)

5. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (5)

Other Contenders:

Jonathan Pryce, The Wife

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Outlook:

Ali looks likely to be collecting his second Oscar in a couple months. Chalamet has the reviews to win, but he will likely be the only shot at a nomination for his film, and that plus his age will hold him back. Elliott could win, but I can't imagine A Star is Born winning three acting awards. He'd make sense though as a winner. Miranda is just a feeling I have, but a smarter bet would probably be with Pryce.

Oscar Predictions - September 26th (Post Venice/TIFF/Telluride)

While we wait for a few stragglers to screen (looking at you Vice/Cheney/Backseat/Whatever that Dick Cheney movie is going to be called!) everything has essentially been seen and judged by the powers that decide what films get to play in the awards season circus. This means we can try to wade through the water and further predict the upcoming Academy Awards.

The major remaining questions:
Will the Academy (along with SAG and BAFTA) treat Lady Gaga closer to how they treated Cher or Madonna? Cher of course was nominated for a couple acting Oscars and won for Moonstruck. Madonna won a golden globe for Evita, (over Frances McDormand the eventual Oscar winner for Fargo) but did not receive an Oscar nomination. I think the film is strong enough to get Gaga a nomination, but will the Academy make her wait for another film to get a win? The likely option is that they will be swept up in the love of the film and she will be a major contender for the win.

What's A24 going to champion the most? They have three out-there contenders. Hereditary, Eighth Grade and First Reformed are all unlikely contenders, but all three are fantastic with rave reviews behind them. Eighth Grade and First Reformed both seem likely contenders in Original Screenplay, but Hereditary star Toni Collette has the best reviews awhile being in the toughest film for the Academy. Ethan Hawke should be a major contender too for First Reformed. A24 has quickly become a powerhouse campaigner, but can they get all three films into contention? Can they get any? I hope so because all three films deserve to be at the Dolby. (Alert to my biases here, Toni Collette is my favorite working actress and Bo Burnham is someone that I've claimed as a genius for as long as I can remember.)

Vice is a film about Dick Cheney, we know nothing else about it. Is it as baity as most biopics? I imagine in the hands of Adam McKay it will be a bit subversive. I think Vice's best shot is Amy Adams in supporting.

Where are The Favourite ladies going????????? WHO IS LEAD????????

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

August's ranking is in parenthesis.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. The Favourite (7, +4)
4. First Man (4, =)
5. Green Book (New)
6. Widows (New)
7. Black Panther (8, +1)
8. BlackkKlansman (6, -2)
9. Vice (10, +1)

Out:
The Other Side of the Wind
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My Thoughts:
A Star is Born will be the more popular pick and I see it winning out over the artsier Roma in this category. The Favourite will be the dark house here.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (2, +1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (New)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Out:

Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (1)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

My Thoughts:

Roma vs. A Star is Born seems to be the battle of the night. Roma is supposed to be a technical marvel, and I don't see Cooper winning four Oscars in one night, but who knows?

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (3, +2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (New)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (2, -1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (1, -3)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (5, =)

Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary (4)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:
Glenn Close will have the overdue narrative, Colman has amazing reviews, McCarthy is the biggest movie star, Davis is entering Meryl Streep territory, but Gaga really feels like she's going to take this home. As strange as that would have seemed three months ago. Gaga will likely also pick up Best Original Song for "Shallow."

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1,=)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (3, +1)

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (5, +2)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (New)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, (4, -1)

Out:

John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind (2)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun

My Thoughts:

Cooper should be the easiest win of the night. Malek and Bale haven't been seen yet, but both roles should be baity enough to get in. Mortensen came out of nowhere, but would be a huge threat to win without Cooper here.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (New)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (4, =)

5. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (3, -2)

Out: 

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (5)

Other Contenders:

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:

Academy Award Winner Amy Adams sounds nice doesn't it? Only thing I see in the way of that is if Olivia Colman goes supporting. Rachel Weisz should probably be in this category, but I see them wanting to bring Crazy Rich Asians to the party and Yeoh seems like the best chance outside of like production design. 

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +3)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (New)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (2, -1)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (New)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (New)

Out:

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (1)

Sam Rockwell, Vice (3)

Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back (5)

Other Contenders:

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

My Thoughts:

Chalamet has the best reviews in the category, but his film is very divisive and he might be the only nomination for it. (If he even gets in.) Ali has a crowd pleasing film, but he just won for Moonlight. He might still win anyway. Grant has a flashy role and is a veteran. He fits the mold that normally wins this category. Elliott should get carried in by the love of the film and the respect he carries. Jordan is a question mark, but he seems in a good place to be carried in by the love of Black Panther, plus he's been snubbed a couple times before. It just feels like his time finally.

Pre-Festival Oscar Predictions

                                               
We are just hours away from the beginning of the fall festival season. Venice, Telluride and Toronto will give us most of the information we need to know for the upcoming awards season, and for our own personal taste of things to see and turds to avoid.

The festivals should answer some of the big questions that are currently in limbo...Where will The Favourite ladies be placed? Is Lady Gaga a contender in Best Actress? Will The Other Side of The Wind be a final contender for the late, great Orson Welles? Are Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased strong enough to get Timmy Chalamet and Lucas Hedges back to the Dolby despite their age disadvantages? Jenkins, McQueen and Chazelle have big shoes to fill after their last films, will they hold up to the pressure?

These are my current predictions for Best Director, Best Picture, and the acting categories. I usually don't do the below-the-line categories until closer to the ceremony.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. The Other Side of the Wind
4. First Man
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6. BlackkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Black Panther
9. Beautiful Boy
10.Backseat

For now the buzz behind A Star is Born seems strong enough to push it to Best Picture. The Other Side of the Wind and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs are both question marks, Welles' film has been on the shelf for forty years and I'm not sure how the Academy will respond. The Coens film wasn't a film originally and will be interesting to see how their intended TV series transitions until a film. Roma is supposedly great AND timely, but will the Academy bite? Black Panther might get screwed by this "Best Popular Film" category as I do think it would have made the lineup before that category was invented, but now it might get pushed into that side category.

Best Director:
1. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

They are getting another chance to reward Orson Welles...will they? I'm going to predict it, but I could easily see another Oscar win in this category for Chazelle, Cuarón or The Coens. However Spike Lee should be in contention here and could finally get a win in this category. Bradley Cooper will probably be happy with a nomination here and a win in Best Actor.

Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind
3. Christian Bale, Backseat
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Cooper is an Academy favorite in a passion project, he sings, he drinks, I see this being his trophy. The rest of this category is a big ol' question mark. I'm very high on The Other Side of the Wind...perhaps too high? Backseat only exists through set photos, I feel less confident in its chances everyday. Malek seems great in Bohemian Rhapsody, will the Singer controversy strike the film though? Gosling should be good to go for First Man even if some test screening buzz wasn't so high.

Best Actress:
1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Toni Collette, Hereditary
5. Viola Davis, Widows

McCarthy has had a rough year, but she's a former nominee and this seems up the Academy's alley. Close has the reviews and overdue narrative in her favor, but the film feels like a blip that's just keeping afloat because of Close. I guess it could be her Still Alice. Gaga has great buzz, but will she be invited to the party like Cher or be shut-out like the woman she's constantly compared with...Madonna. Collette has the reviews of the year, but is the film too controversial and out-there for them? I think A24 will get her in. Davis seems like she's entering Meryl Streep territory and will get in for most anything, but especially a McQueen film. I have Olivia Colman just missing out here, but she could win the category if the reviews are strong tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
3. Sam Rockwell in Backseat
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

This category is a crapshoot...I have no idea here. Nelson seems like the type of winner this category usually has, but he could be lead or not even have the juiciest part in the film. We don't know much yet. Chalamet has strong buzz, but the film might only contend for him and I'm not sure that's enough. His age was hard to bet against for a first nomination, let alone a second one. However he also seems like he could be a potential winner here. I've been predicting him all year, so I won't quit now. Hedges has three buzzy roles coming up, supporting in Ben is Back and Mid-90's and lead in Boy Erased. I think he gets in somewhere, but not sure where yet. This feels much more open than the lead category. I think Grant has a fun part and can coat-tail off of McCarthy. Rockwell gets his follow-up nod.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Backseat
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Amy is coming for her Oscar.