Oscar Predictions - September 1st

 

 Usually I do monthly predictions for the upcoming Academy Awards, but this has been such a strange year that it hasn't really felt right to do them. Honestly, I'm not sure what films are even going to be released in time and what's going to be delayed until 2021. 

It feels like Netflix is set to dominate this upcoming season and I guess that would be fitting for a pandemic? However the Academy has been resistant to Netflix winning Best Picture, but maybe they will reward them for keeping the industry alive during this year? Anyway I wanted to do some predictions, but it's impossible. I have no idea what's coming out other than Netflix. 

When  we get closer, I'll try to actually do these. However all I know is that it's going to feel so wrong if Glenn Close finally wins an Oscar and she has to accept it over Zoom???????

Year In Advance Predictions...predicting next year's Oscar nominations.

(Frances McDormand in Chloé Zhao's Nomadland)

A whole whopping 30 hours or so have passed since the 2019 Oscar nominations were announced and so obviously it's time to move on to next year. Last year I went about .500 with my predictions so it will be interesting to see how this coming year unfolds because there seems to be a lot less obvious picks.

Predicted winner in BOLD.

Best Picture

Da 5 Bloods (Spike Lee)

Dune (Denis Villenueve)

The French Dispatch (Wes Anderson)

In The Heights (Jon Chu)

Mank (David Fincher)

Next Goal Wins (Taika Waititi)

Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

Tenet (Christopher Nolan)

West Side Story (Steven Spielberg)

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

Jon Chu, In The Heights

David Fincher, Mank

Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actor

Tom Hanks, News of the World

Gary Oldman, Mank

Joaquin Phoenix, C'mon, C'mon

Denzel Washington, Macbeth

Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Actress

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Jennifer Lawrence, Untitled Lila Neugebauer Project

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, The French Dispatch

Brian Tyree Henry, Untitled Lila Neugebauer Project

Richard Jenkins, The Humans

Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

LaKeith Stanfield, Jesus Was My Homeboy

Best Supporting Actress

Toni Collette, I'm Thinking of Ending Things

Gaby Hoffmann, C'mon, C'mon

Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Olga Merediz, In The Heights

Marisa Tomei, Untitled Judd Apatow Project

Oscar Predictions - On the Eve of the Golden Globes nominations.

          Wow, this year went quickly didn't it? Tomorrow brings us the nominations for the Golden Globes. The Golden Globes of course are picked by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and act as a huge precursor for the Academy Awards.

Since the race will be a little clearer after tomorrow I thought I'd take a quick jab at the acting Oscars since the Screen Actors Guild will be announcing their picks later in the week as well.

Predictions for the acting categories at the 2020 Academy Awards:

Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress:
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time...in Hollywood
John Lithgow, Bombshell

Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

Oscar Predictions - September 26th (Post Venice/TIFF/Telluride)

While we wait for a few stragglers to screen (looking at you Vice/Cheney/Backseat/Whatever that Dick Cheney movie is going to be called!) everything has essentially been seen and judged by the powers that decide what films get to play in the awards season circus. This means we can try to wade through the water and further predict the upcoming Academy Awards.

The major remaining questions:
Will the Academy (along with SAG and BAFTA) treat Lady Gaga closer to how they treated Cher or Madonna? Cher of course was nominated for a couple acting Oscars and won for Moonstruck. Madonna won a golden globe for Evita, (over Frances McDormand the eventual Oscar winner for Fargo) but did not receive an Oscar nomination. I think the film is strong enough to get Gaga a nomination, but will the Academy make her wait for another film to get a win? The likely option is that they will be swept up in the love of the film and she will be a major contender for the win.

What's A24 going to champion the most? They have three out-there contenders. Hereditary, Eighth Grade and First Reformed are all unlikely contenders, but all three are fantastic with rave reviews behind them. Eighth Grade and First Reformed both seem likely contenders in Original Screenplay, but Hereditary star Toni Collette has the best reviews awhile being in the toughest film for the Academy. Ethan Hawke should be a major contender too for First Reformed. A24 has quickly become a powerhouse campaigner, but can they get all three films into contention? Can they get any? I hope so because all three films deserve to be at the Dolby. (Alert to my biases here, Toni Collette is my favorite working actress and Bo Burnham is someone that I've claimed as a genius for as long as I can remember.)

Vice is a film about Dick Cheney, we know nothing else about it. Is it as baity as most biopics? I imagine in the hands of Adam McKay it will be a bit subversive. I think Vice's best shot is Amy Adams in supporting.

Where are The Favourite ladies going????????? WHO IS LEAD????????

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

August's ranking is in parenthesis.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. The Favourite (7, +4)
4. First Man (4, =)
5. Green Book (New)
6. Widows (New)
7. Black Panther (8, +1)
8. BlackkKlansman (6, -2)
9. Vice (10, +1)

Out:
The Other Side of the Wind
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My Thoughts:
A Star is Born will be the more popular pick and I see it winning out over the artsier Roma in this category. The Favourite will be the dark house here.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (2, +1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (New)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Out:

Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (1)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

My Thoughts:

Roma vs. A Star is Born seems to be the battle of the night. Roma is supposed to be a technical marvel, and I don't see Cooper winning four Oscars in one night, but who knows?

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (3, +2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (New)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (2, -1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (1, -3)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (5, =)

Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary (4)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:
Glenn Close will have the overdue narrative, Colman has amazing reviews, McCarthy is the biggest movie star, Davis is entering Meryl Streep territory, but Gaga really feels like she's going to take this home. As strange as that would have seemed three months ago. Gaga will likely also pick up Best Original Song for "Shallow."

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1,=)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (3, +1)

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (5, +2)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (New)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, (4, -1)

Out:

John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind (2)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun

My Thoughts:

Cooper should be the easiest win of the night. Malek and Bale haven't been seen yet, but both roles should be baity enough to get in. Mortensen came out of nowhere, but would be a huge threat to win without Cooper here.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (New)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (4, =)

5. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (3, -2)

Out: 

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (5)

Other Contenders:

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:

Academy Award Winner Amy Adams sounds nice doesn't it? Only thing I see in the way of that is if Olivia Colman goes supporting. Rachel Weisz should probably be in this category, but I see them wanting to bring Crazy Rich Asians to the party and Yeoh seems like the best chance outside of like production design. 

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +3)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (New)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (2, -1)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (New)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (New)

Out:

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (1)

Sam Rockwell, Vice (3)

Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back (5)

Other Contenders:

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

My Thoughts:

Chalamet has the best reviews in the category, but his film is very divisive and he might be the only nomination for it. (If he even gets in.) Ali has a crowd pleasing film, but he just won for Moonlight. He might still win anyway. Grant has a flashy role and is a veteran. He fits the mold that normally wins this category. Elliott should get carried in by the love of the film and the respect he carries. Jordan is a question mark, but he seems in a good place to be carried in by the love of Black Panther, plus he's been snubbed a couple times before. It just feels like his time finally.

Pre-Festival Oscar Predictions

                                               
We are just hours away from the beginning of the fall festival season. Venice, Telluride and Toronto will give us most of the information we need to know for the upcoming awards season, and for our own personal taste of things to see and turds to avoid.

The festivals should answer some of the big questions that are currently in limbo...Where will The Favourite ladies be placed? Is Lady Gaga a contender in Best Actress? Will The Other Side of The Wind be a final contender for the late, great Orson Welles? Are Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased strong enough to get Timmy Chalamet and Lucas Hedges back to the Dolby despite their age disadvantages? Jenkins, McQueen and Chazelle have big shoes to fill after their last films, will they hold up to the pressure?

These are my current predictions for Best Director, Best Picture, and the acting categories. I usually don't do the below-the-line categories until closer to the ceremony.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. The Other Side of the Wind
4. First Man
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6. BlackkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Black Panther
9. Beautiful Boy
10.Backseat

For now the buzz behind A Star is Born seems strong enough to push it to Best Picture. The Other Side of the Wind and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs are both question marks, Welles' film has been on the shelf for forty years and I'm not sure how the Academy will respond. The Coens film wasn't a film originally and will be interesting to see how their intended TV series transitions until a film. Roma is supposedly great AND timely, but will the Academy bite? Black Panther might get screwed by this "Best Popular Film" category as I do think it would have made the lineup before that category was invented, but now it might get pushed into that side category.

Best Director:
1. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

They are getting another chance to reward Orson Welles...will they? I'm going to predict it, but I could easily see another Oscar win in this category for Chazelle, Cuarón or The Coens. However Spike Lee should be in contention here and could finally get a win in this category. Bradley Cooper will probably be happy with a nomination here and a win in Best Actor.

Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind
3. Christian Bale, Backseat
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Cooper is an Academy favorite in a passion project, he sings, he drinks, I see this being his trophy. The rest of this category is a big ol' question mark. I'm very high on The Other Side of the Wind...perhaps too high? Backseat only exists through set photos, I feel less confident in its chances everyday. Malek seems great in Bohemian Rhapsody, will the Singer controversy strike the film though? Gosling should be good to go for First Man even if some test screening buzz wasn't so high.

Best Actress:
1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Toni Collette, Hereditary
5. Viola Davis, Widows

McCarthy has had a rough year, but she's a former nominee and this seems up the Academy's alley. Close has the reviews and overdue narrative in her favor, but the film feels like a blip that's just keeping afloat because of Close. I guess it could be her Still Alice. Gaga has great buzz, but will she be invited to the party like Cher or be shut-out like the woman she's constantly compared with...Madonna. Collette has the reviews of the year, but is the film too controversial and out-there for them? I think A24 will get her in. Davis seems like she's entering Meryl Streep territory and will get in for most anything, but especially a McQueen film. I have Olivia Colman just missing out here, but she could win the category if the reviews are strong tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
3. Sam Rockwell in Backseat
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

This category is a crapshoot...I have no idea here. Nelson seems like the type of winner this category usually has, but he could be lead or not even have the juiciest part in the film. We don't know much yet. Chalamet has strong buzz, but the film might only contend for him and I'm not sure that's enough. His age was hard to bet against for a first nomination, let alone a second one. However he also seems like he could be a potential winner here. I've been predicting him all year, so I won't quit now. Hedges has three buzzy roles coming up, supporting in Ben is Back and Mid-90's and lead in Boy Erased. I think he gets in somewhere, but not sure where yet. This feels much more open than the lead category. I think Grant has a fun part and can coat-tail off of McCarthy. Rockwell gets his follow-up nod.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Backseat
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Amy is coming for her Oscar.

Final Oscar Predictions

This Sunday marks the end of awards season as the 90th annual Academy Awards take place. A once-promising awards season has turned into one of the most boring in recent memory. The only real question marks seem to be in best picture and original screenplay. Even then on Sunday if Three Billboards wins those categories we'll just be saying we should have seen it all along.

That being said the Oscars almost never nominate as many movies that I love as they did this year. Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread and Get Out are all in my top five of the year, (my third ranked film of the year, mother! is nominated for worst picture at the Razzies the night before!) so I'm still excited to see many of my favorites at the ceremony. I also really liked The Post, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk and (dare I say it?) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, so it will be a mostly enjoyable evening for me. The only best picture nominee that I truly hated was Darkest Hour. What an absolute turd.

Also while I'm rooting for other actresses above them this year, Frances McDormand and Allison Janney are two of my favorites and I'm glad they'll both have more hardware to add to the trophy-case. We're also going to be able to say Academy Award Winners Roger Deakins and James Ivory, which is well over-due.

Anyway here are my final predictions for this Sunday's Academy Awards. They are mostly by the book because this year doesn't seem ripe for many upsets.

Original Screenplay is very interesting, because I don't see Get Out going home empty-handed. I think it finishes second for best picture, but I don't see Three Billboards only winning acting awards along with best picture. I'm predicting Three Billboards in picture, but if Get Out wins screenplay then I think it wins picture. I'm going to predict a split, but whatever wins original screenplay will win picture so I'm wrong already!

Best Picture

Will Win:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win:

Call Me By Your Name

Best Director

Will Win:

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Should Win:

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

(But really...this is a GREAT category and all would be great winners.)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Will Win:

Frances McDormand as Mildred Hayes in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win:

Saoirse Ronan as Christine "Lady Bird" McPherson in Lady Bird 

(But really all would be great winners)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Will Win:

Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour

Should Win:

Timothée Chalamet as Elio in Call Me by Your Name

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win:

Allison Janney as LaVona in I, Tonya

Should Win:

Laurie Metcalf as Marion McPherson in Lady Bird

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win:

Sam Rockwell as Dixon in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win:

Willem Dafoe as Bobby in The Florida Project

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win:

Jordan Peele for Get Out

Should Win:

Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird

Adapted Screenplay

Will Win:

James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name

Should Win:

James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name

Best Cinematography

Will Win:

Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049

Should Win:

Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049

Best Film Editing

Will Win:

Dunkirk

Should Win:

Baby Driver

Best Production Design

Will Win:

The Shape of Water

Should Win:

Blade Runner 2049

Original Song

Will Win:

"This is Me" from The Greatest Showman

Should Win:

"Mystery of Love" from Call Me by Your Name

Visual Effects

Will Win:

Blade Runner 2049

Should Win:

War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design

Will Win:

Phantom Thread

Should Win:

Phantom Thread

Original Score

Will Win:

The Shape of Water

Should Win:

Phantom Thread

Sound Editing 

Will Win:

Dunkirk

Sound Mixing

Will Win:

Dunkirk

Foreign Film

Will Win:

A Fantastic Woman

Animated Film

Will Win:

Coco

Documentary

Will Win:

Faces Places

Make-Up and Hairstyling

Will Win:

Darkest Hour

Enjoy the show! 

Post-BAFTA Oscar Predictions

Early on, this awards season seemed like a big ol' question mark. There didn't seem to be a big front-runner leading the pack. Well here we are now, and that's just not the case. Three Billboards has picked up wins at SAG, BAFTA and the (non-industry but most publicly seen precursor) Golden Globes.

Every category seems almost locked. The only real question mark is if Three Billboards can win picture without a director nomination?

Predictions in the Main Categories:

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alternate: Get Out or The Shape of Water

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Alternate: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Alternate: Timmy Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name...but unfortunately no chance.

Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alternate: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water...very unlikely unless it wins Best Picture.

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alternate: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project...not gonna happen

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Alternate: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird...only if Lady Bird ends up winning Picture.

Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Alternate: Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards or Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name
Alternate: Mudbound... but not really.

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Alternate: Dunkirk...but this better go to Roger Deakins

Best Original Song: This is Me from The Greatest Showman
Alternate: Remember Me from Coco

Oscar Predictions

My final predictions in the above the line categories for the Oscars. The nominations are this Tuesday! Wow, seems like it was just yesterday that Moonlight upset La La Land for Best Picture.

This year is all over the place. Three Billboards was an early front-runner, fell off a bit and is now back in the front. The Shape of Water and Dunkirk both seem like good bets for Best Director, but both missed out on the much needed SAG ensemble nomination. No film has won Best Picture without it. (A sign we should have seen for La La Land.) Lady Bird and Get Out, both have over-performed and seem to be the two films with the most passion behind them. Will this carry over for the win? I, Tonya seems to be peaking while The Florida Project might be limping towards the finish. Perhaps both get in? 

Will anyone else fall to their past? Will James Franco still get nominated? His scandal broke at the end of the voting period. 

Guess we will find out soon.

Best Picture:

1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. The Shape of Water

4. Get Out

5. Dunkirk

6. Call Me by Your Name

7. The Florida Project

8. The Post

9. I, Tonya

---

The Big Sick

Phantom Thread

Darkest Hour

Best Actor:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Timmy Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

5. Tom Hanks, The Post

---

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Best Actress:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

5. Meryl Streep, The Post

---

Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

---

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

Steve Carrel, Battle of the Sexes

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

---

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Catherine Keener, Get Out

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. Get Out

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Big Sick

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. The Disaster Artist

3. Mudbound

4. Molly's Game

5. All the Money in the World

December Oscar Predictions

The critic awards have started for the 2017 awards season. 

The National Board of Review began the proceedings awarding The Post with Best Picture. Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks came along for the ride in the leading acting categories for the same film. Lady Bird walked away with Best Director for Greta Gerwig and Best Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf. Willem Dafoe won the first of his Supporting Actor awards for The Florida Project. 

NYFCC was next in line. Lady Bird had another big day winning Best Picture and Best Actress for Saoirse Ronan. Saoirse's Lady Bird co-star Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor for his raved work in Call Me by Your Name. The Florida Project's Sean Baker won Best Director. In an unexpected, but inspired pick Girls Trip star Tiffany Haddish won in Supporting Actress. Phantom Thread won Best Screenplay following up its Original Screenplay win at NBR. Willem Dafoe won again. 

Call Me by Your Name was the big winner at the LAFCA awards. The film won Best Picture, Chalamet won Best Actor and the film co-shared Best Director. The Shape of Water which shared the Best Director prize also won Best Actress for Sally Hawkins. Laurie Metcalf and Willem Dafoe won again in the supporting categories. Jordan Peele's Get Out won Best Screenplay. 

My interpretation is that Tiffany Haddish is very close to an Oscar nomination and I'd predict her to get in. Wonder if they will use her grapefruit monologue for the ceremony? Willem Dafoe might sweep the critics and since people seem to really be against Sam Rockwell's attempted redemption in Three Billboards then with the overdue factor I could easily see Dafoe winning this now. Also a chance for them to reward The Florida Project. Timmy Chalamet might come up short in his quest to become the youngest Best Actor winner ever, but he is going to put up a strong fight. It's too bad Gary Oldman just had to play Winston Churchill this year. Lady Bird seems like it could win Best Picture, and I never would have guessed that a month ago. Christopher Nolan or Spielberg still seem likely Best Director winners, but Gerwig should be good for a nomination now. I thought Allison Janney was going to stream-roll her way to the Oscar, but I'm leaning towards Metcalf now. Actress and Original Screenplay are a mystery right now. The Post seems very timely and very likely to be our winner for Picture.

Best Picture:

The Post

1. The Post (+3)

2. Lady Bird (+4)

3. Dunkirk (-1)

4. Call Me by Your Name (+1)

5. Get Out (+3)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-5)

7.  The Shape of Water (-4)

8. The Florida Project (-1)

Best Director:

Greta Gerwig 

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (=)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (+1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (NEW)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (=)

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Actress:

Margot Robbie

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-2)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-1)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (=)

Best Actor:

Timothee Chalamet

1. Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour (=)

2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (=) 

3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (=)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (=)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (=)

Best Supporting Actress:

Tiffany Haddish

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-1)

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (=)

4. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (NEW)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Catherine Keener, Get Out

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe (and Brooklyn Prince)

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (+2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (+1)

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (-4)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me by Your Name (=)

2. The Disaster Artist (=)

3. Mudbound (=)

4. Molly's Game (=)

5. Wonder (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Original Screenplay:

1. Get Out (+4)

2. Lady Bird (=)

3. The Post (+1)

4. Phantom Thread (NEW)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Shape of Water

2017 Oscar Predictions

Awards season grows ever closer, so it feels like time for some early Oscar predictions. 

Best Picture:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. The Post

5. Call Me by Your Name

6. Lady Bird

7. The Florida Project

8. Get Out

Outside Contenders: 

Downsizing. 

The Big Sick.

 I, Tonya. 

Mudbound.

Best Director:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

3. Steven Spielberg, The Post

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Outside Contenders: 

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird. 

Sean Baker, The Florida Project. 

Best Actress: 

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

4. Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird (Pictured above)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Outside Contenders:

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul.

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project.

Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game.

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes.

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Best Actor:

1. Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (Pictured Above)

3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

4. Tom Hanks, The Post

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Outside Contenders:

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out.

....

I guess maybe...

Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger.

...

This category is desolate.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya. (Pictured Above)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird.

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick.

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water.

5. Catherine Keener, Get Out.

Outside Contenders:

Hong Chau, Downsizing.

Melissa Leo, Novitiate.

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound.

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

3. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water.

Outside Contenders:

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water.

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Sebastian Stan, I, Tonya.

Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

Jason Mitchell, Mudbound.

Original Screenplay:

1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. The Shape of Water

4. The Post

5. Get Out

Outside Contenders:

The Florida Project

The Big Sick

Phantom Thread

Downsizing

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. The Disaster Artist

3. Mudbound

4. Molly's Game

5. Last Flag Flying

Other Contenders:

I could barely come up with five.