Oscar Predictions - October 23rd

                 (Lady Gaga - A Star is Born, Toni Collette - Hereditary, Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy, Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther)

We're another month closer to the Oscars. Since last month we've had some of the remaining questions answered for the upcoming awards season. Olivia Colman will be going in lead for The Favourite with Weisz (and likely Stone) in supporting. Vice finally released a trailer, Christian Bale seems to be a lock for a nomination and Amy Adams is in it to win it (finally!) for playing Lynne Cheney. Bohemian Rhapsody's reviews aren't lighting the world on fire, and it will be interesting to see if Rami Malek can still contend in a weak year for the category.

A Star is Born still seems to be in the driver's seat, but we know how quickly things can change. The film seems to be hitting culturally in a way that most recent best picture winners haven't, and that is a major strength in its corner. Roma is still right behind it, but I am curious to see how big Green Book can get. We're about a month away from the National Board of Review announcing their picks, and then we'll really be rolling along towards the ceremony.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

September's ranking is in parenthesis.

October Oscar Predictions:

(Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book)

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. Green Book (5, +2)
4. The Favourite (3, -1)
5. Widows (6, +1)
6. Black Panther (7, +1)
7. Vice (9, +2)
8. BlackkKlansman (8, =)
9. First Man (3, -6)

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians

Outlook:
A Star is Born just seems way too big to falter at this point, but Roma will try to bring down Goliath. However I do think Roma will end up preventing A Star is Born from sweeping the big 5 awards. Green Book seems like a film that would have won this award in the 90's, but it could come close again if backlash starts against Star. First Man falls down the rankings since it didn't take off at the box office, but I do think it is safe for a nomination.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Outlook:

Roma will get its love here, I don't think there will be much of a fight. Cooper will win elsewhere.

(Viola Davis in Widows)

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3, =)
4. Viola Davis, Widows (5, +1)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, -1)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Outlook:

Gaga vs. Close vs. Colman. I think Gaga and Colman will win the Globes, Colman will win BAFTA and Close/Gaga will face off for SAG. We could be in for a very exciting race in this category. However if Colman takes SAG (like she could) or Gaga/Close take BAFTA then the race will likely be heading in the direction of that winner. I do wonder if the academy will be biased against Gaga, but the film is so loved and she seems to be charming people at the Q&As so I do think she is the frontrunner for now. Aparicio and Collette should do well with the critics, and could boost over McCarthy. At one point I thought McCarthy was winning, but her buzz seems to be fading. However it would be so strange if Richard E. Grant got in and she didn't.

(Ethan Hawke in First Reformed)

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2, =)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (4, +1)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (3, -1)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (New)

Out:

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (5)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Outlook:

Cooper is winning, the question now is who else gets invited to the party? Malek has great individual reviews, but the film is getting burned. He has the role, but I think Hawke may sneak in over him now.

(Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk)

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3, =)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (New)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (4, -1)

Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Outlook:

Amy Adams should be very thankful that Olivia Colman went lead. She still has fierce competition, but it does feel like her time. King should contend, and her path would likely begin with SAG. Finally moved Weisz up since we know for sure that Colman is lead, all three ladies should be safe.

(Lin-Manuel Miranda in Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (2, +1)

2. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2, -2)

5. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (5)

Other Contenders:

Jonathan Pryce, The Wife

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Outlook:

Ali looks likely to be collecting his second Oscar in a couple months. Chalamet has the reviews to win, but he will likely be the only shot at a nomination for his film, and that plus his age will hold him back. Elliott could win, but I can't imagine A Star is Born winning three acting awards. He'd make sense though as a winner. Miranda is just a feeling I have, but a smarter bet would probably be with Pryce.