Oscar Nomination Reactions

Things I loved about this morning's Oscar nominations:

In one year, three of my favorite actresses (Allison Janney, Laurie Metcalf and Greta Gerwig) all became Academy Award nominees. Greta of course is not nominated for her acting, but for her beautiful screenplay and direction for Lady Bird.

Timmy Chalamet may have given my favorite film performance of all-time and is now an Oscar nominee.

Sufjan Steven's great "Mystery of Love" was nominated for Original Song.

Saoirse Ronan returns to Oscar glory.

I personally preferred Woody Harrelson to Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards, so I'm happy for Woody who is one of our greatest actors.

The Director and Screenplay categories are about as good as they could get. Loved PTA sneaking in.

Blade Runner in all the tech categories.

Things I did not like:

Hong Chau, Armie Hammer, Holly Hunter and Michael Stuhlbarg getting snubbed in the Supporting categories.

Otherwise I really don't have that much to complain about...WHAT A SHOCK.

Oscar Predictions

My final predictions in the above the line categories for the Oscars. The nominations are this Tuesday! Wow, seems like it was just yesterday that Moonlight upset La La Land for Best Picture.

This year is all over the place. Three Billboards was an early front-runner, fell off a bit and is now back in the front. The Shape of Water and Dunkirk both seem like good bets for Best Director, but both missed out on the much needed SAG ensemble nomination. No film has won Best Picture without it. (A sign we should have seen for La La Land.) Lady Bird and Get Out, both have over-performed and seem to be the two films with the most passion behind them. Will this carry over for the win? I, Tonya seems to be peaking while The Florida Project might be limping towards the finish. Perhaps both get in? 

Will anyone else fall to their past? Will James Franco still get nominated? His scandal broke at the end of the voting period. 

Guess we will find out soon.

Best Picture:

1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. The Shape of Water

4. Get Out

5. Dunkirk

6. Call Me by Your Name

7. The Florida Project

8. The Post

9. I, Tonya

---

The Big Sick

Phantom Thread

Darkest Hour

Best Actor:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Timmy Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

5. Tom Hanks, The Post

---

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Best Actress:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

5. Meryl Streep, The Post

---

Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

---

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

Steve Carrel, Battle of the Sexes

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

---

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Catherine Keener, Get Out

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

2. Lady Bird

3. Get Out

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Big Sick

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. The Disaster Artist

3. Mudbound

4. Molly's Game

5. All the Money in the World

2018 Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes have arrived, and with that the beginning of the televised awards for film. The Golden Globes are decided by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, so they always like to throw a few curve-balls while doing their best to predict the Oscars.

Usually by now we have a few locks, for example a Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine or Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. This year we don't have that. Gary Oldman is probably the closest thing to a lock, but Timmy Chalamet might win the Globe because of passionate fans and Oldman's past remarks about the HFPA.

Tonight's awards kind of feel like closing your eyes and throwing a dart and seeing where it lands. Best Actress in a Drama seems like a real cutthroat race with Sally Hawkins fighting it out with Frances McDormand and Meryl Streep.

These are my current predictions with an alternate in parenthesis:

Best Motion Picture - Drama: The Shape of Water (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical: Lady Bird (Get Out)
Best Actor - Drama - Timmy Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour)
Best Actress - Drama - Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (Frances McDormand, Three Billboards)
Best Actor - Comedy or Musical - Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (James Franco, The Darkest Hour)
Best Actress - Comedy or Musical - Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird)
Best Supporting Actor- Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project)
Best Supporting Actress - Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (Allison Janney, I, Tonya)
Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (Steven Spielberg, The Post)
Best Screenplay - Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards)
Best Animated Film - Coco (Loving Vincent)
Best Foreign Language Film - First They Killed My Father (The Square)
Best Original Score - Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk)
Best Original Song - Mighty River, Mudbound (This is Me, The Greatest Showman)

December Oscar Predictions

The critic awards have started for the 2017 awards season. 

The National Board of Review began the proceedings awarding The Post with Best Picture. Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks came along for the ride in the leading acting categories for the same film. Lady Bird walked away with Best Director for Greta Gerwig and Best Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf. Willem Dafoe won the first of his Supporting Actor awards for The Florida Project. 

NYFCC was next in line. Lady Bird had another big day winning Best Picture and Best Actress for Saoirse Ronan. Saoirse's Lady Bird co-star Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor for his raved work in Call Me by Your Name. The Florida Project's Sean Baker won Best Director. In an unexpected, but inspired pick Girls Trip star Tiffany Haddish won in Supporting Actress. Phantom Thread won Best Screenplay following up its Original Screenplay win at NBR. Willem Dafoe won again. 

Call Me by Your Name was the big winner at the LAFCA awards. The film won Best Picture, Chalamet won Best Actor and the film co-shared Best Director. The Shape of Water which shared the Best Director prize also won Best Actress for Sally Hawkins. Laurie Metcalf and Willem Dafoe won again in the supporting categories. Jordan Peele's Get Out won Best Screenplay. 

My interpretation is that Tiffany Haddish is very close to an Oscar nomination and I'd predict her to get in. Wonder if they will use her grapefruit monologue for the ceremony? Willem Dafoe might sweep the critics and since people seem to really be against Sam Rockwell's attempted redemption in Three Billboards then with the overdue factor I could easily see Dafoe winning this now. Also a chance for them to reward The Florida Project. Timmy Chalamet might come up short in his quest to become the youngest Best Actor winner ever, but he is going to put up a strong fight. It's too bad Gary Oldman just had to play Winston Churchill this year. Lady Bird seems like it could win Best Picture, and I never would have guessed that a month ago. Christopher Nolan or Spielberg still seem likely Best Director winners, but Gerwig should be good for a nomination now. I thought Allison Janney was going to stream-roll her way to the Oscar, but I'm leaning towards Metcalf now. Actress and Original Screenplay are a mystery right now. The Post seems very timely and very likely to be our winner for Picture.

Best Picture:

The Post

1. The Post (+3)

2. Lady Bird (+4)

3. Dunkirk (-1)

4. Call Me by Your Name (+1)

5. Get Out (+3)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-5)

7.  The Shape of Water (-4)

8. The Florida Project (-1)

Best Director:

Greta Gerwig 

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (=)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (+1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (NEW)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (=)

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Actress:

Margot Robbie

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-2)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-1)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (=)

Best Actor:

Timothee Chalamet

1. Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour (=)

2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (=) 

3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (=)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (=)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (=)

Best Supporting Actress:

Tiffany Haddish

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-1)

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (=)

4. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (NEW)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Catherine Keener, Get Out

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe (and Brooklyn Prince)

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (+2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (+1)

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (-4)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me by Your Name (=)

2. The Disaster Artist (=)

3. Mudbound (=)

4. Molly's Game (=)

5. Wonder (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Original Screenplay:

1. Get Out (+4)

2. Lady Bird (=)

3. The Post (+1)

4. Phantom Thread (NEW)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Shape of Water

One Week until LADY BIRD

Next Friday marks the release of Lady Bird, the debut film for director/writer Greta Gerwig. This is essentially a major life event for me as Gerwig is one of my biggest inspirations in film. Plus throw in one of my favorite actresses in Laurie Metcalf and a gang of some of my favorite young actors like Lucas Hedges, Timmy Chalamet, John Karna and of course my 2015 Best Actress winner Saoirse Ronan. (Brooklyn)

Lady Bird was brought to life from parts of the Frances Ha script that were cut. Frances Ha is one of my top-10 films of the decade so far. If you haven't seen the film I really can't recommend it enough. Greta plays Frances, a dancer that can't quite catch her big break or really any break. Frances Ha is essentially a romantic-comedy except it isn't between two lovers, but best friends. There are not enough films about friendships, and Frances Ha is at the top of the list. Greta starred in the film, but also co-wrote it with Noah Baumbach who directed the picture.

Frances Ha was nominated for four of my personal awards for 2013. Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and won my award for Best Original Screenplay. Lady Bird could be up for even more?

Trailer for Frances Ha:

Trailer for Lady Bird:

Also while we're at it, you should probably watch Mistress America as well. While not quite as masterful as Frances Ha, it's great. Greta won my Supporting Actress prize for it.