Pre-Festival Oscar Predictions

                                               
We are just hours away from the beginning of the fall festival season. Venice, Telluride and Toronto will give us most of the information we need to know for the upcoming awards season, and for our own personal taste of things to see and turds to avoid.

The festivals should answer some of the big questions that are currently in limbo...Where will The Favourite ladies be placed? Is Lady Gaga a contender in Best Actress? Will The Other Side of The Wind be a final contender for the late, great Orson Welles? Are Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased strong enough to get Timmy Chalamet and Lucas Hedges back to the Dolby despite their age disadvantages? Jenkins, McQueen and Chazelle have big shoes to fill after their last films, will they hold up to the pressure?

These are my current predictions for Best Director, Best Picture, and the acting categories. I usually don't do the below-the-line categories until closer to the ceremony.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. The Other Side of the Wind
4. First Man
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6. BlackkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Black Panther
9. Beautiful Boy
10.Backseat

For now the buzz behind A Star is Born seems strong enough to push it to Best Picture. The Other Side of the Wind and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs are both question marks, Welles' film has been on the shelf for forty years and I'm not sure how the Academy will respond. The Coens film wasn't a film originally and will be interesting to see how their intended TV series transitions until a film. Roma is supposedly great AND timely, but will the Academy bite? Black Panther might get screwed by this "Best Popular Film" category as I do think it would have made the lineup before that category was invented, but now it might get pushed into that side category.

Best Director:
1. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

They are getting another chance to reward Orson Welles...will they? I'm going to predict it, but I could easily see another Oscar win in this category for Chazelle, Cuarón or The Coens. However Spike Lee should be in contention here and could finally get a win in this category. Bradley Cooper will probably be happy with a nomination here and a win in Best Actor.

Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind
3. Christian Bale, Backseat
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Cooper is an Academy favorite in a passion project, he sings, he drinks, I see this being his trophy. The rest of this category is a big ol' question mark. I'm very high on The Other Side of the Wind...perhaps too high? Backseat only exists through set photos, I feel less confident in its chances everyday. Malek seems great in Bohemian Rhapsody, will the Singer controversy strike the film though? Gosling should be good to go for First Man even if some test screening buzz wasn't so high.

Best Actress:
1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Toni Collette, Hereditary
5. Viola Davis, Widows

McCarthy has had a rough year, but she's a former nominee and this seems up the Academy's alley. Close has the reviews and overdue narrative in her favor, but the film feels like a blip that's just keeping afloat because of Close. I guess it could be her Still Alice. Gaga has great buzz, but will she be invited to the party like Cher or be shut-out like the woman she's constantly compared with...Madonna. Collette has the reviews of the year, but is the film too controversial and out-there for them? I think A24 will get her in. Davis seems like she's entering Meryl Streep territory and will get in for most anything, but especially a McQueen film. I have Olivia Colman just missing out here, but she could win the category if the reviews are strong tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
3. Sam Rockwell in Backseat
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

This category is a crapshoot...I have no idea here. Nelson seems like the type of winner this category usually has, but he could be lead or not even have the juiciest part in the film. We don't know much yet. Chalamet has strong buzz, but the film might only contend for him and I'm not sure that's enough. His age was hard to bet against for a first nomination, let alone a second one. However he also seems like he could be a potential winner here. I've been predicting him all year, so I won't quit now. Hedges has three buzzy roles coming up, supporting in Ben is Back and Mid-90's and lead in Boy Erased. I think he gets in somewhere, but not sure where yet. This feels much more open than the lead category. I think Grant has a fun part and can coat-tail off of McCarthy. Rockwell gets his follow-up nod.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Backseat
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Amy is coming for her Oscar.