Oscar Predictions - Nov 20 (critics awards are about to begin!)

(Roma)

NOVEMBER OSCAR PREDICTIONS

As we approach Thanksgiving, the critics are about to unleash their picks for the best in film for 2018. The critics can help clear up the race or make it murkier. Last year Laurie Metcalf, Timothee Chalamet and Willem Dafoe seemed to be the critics favorite, but when the televised awards came around Allison Janney, Gary Oldman and Sam Rockwell swept their categories. However the critics can help bring attention to an underseen or early in the year contender that can result in them making it to the party.

Next month at this time many organizations will have announced their winners and the Golden Globes and SAG will have announced their nominees, so the picture will be much clearer.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

November Predictions: (October's Predictions in parenthesis)

Best Picture:

1. A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Roma (2, =)

3. Vice (7, +4)

4. The Favourite (4, =)

5. Black Panther (6, +1)

6. Green Book (3, -3)

7. BlackkKlansman (8, +1)

8. Widows (5, -3)

9. First Man (9, =)

Other Contenders:

Mary Poppins Returns

If Beale Street Could Talk

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Crazy Rich Asians

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Adam McKay, Vice (New)

Drop Outs:

Damien Chazelle, First Man (5)

Other Contenders:

Steve McQueen, Widows

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2,=)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (3, =)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (New)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (4, -1)

Drop Outs:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (5)

Other Contenders: 
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actress:
1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, -1)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3,=)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (5,+1)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Drop Outs:
Viola Davis, Widows (4)

Other Contenders: 
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (1, =)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (2,-2)

5. Steve Carell, Vice (New)

Drop Outs:

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (5)

Other Contenders:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1,=)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2,=)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3,=)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Drop Outs:

Claire Foy, First Man (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Oscar Predictions - October 23rd

                 (Lady Gaga - A Star is Born, Toni Collette - Hereditary, Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy, Michael B. Jordan - Black Panther)

We're another month closer to the Oscars. Since last month we've had some of the remaining questions answered for the upcoming awards season. Olivia Colman will be going in lead for The Favourite with Weisz (and likely Stone) in supporting. Vice finally released a trailer, Christian Bale seems to be a lock for a nomination and Amy Adams is in it to win it (finally!) for playing Lynne Cheney. Bohemian Rhapsody's reviews aren't lighting the world on fire, and it will be interesting to see if Rami Malek can still contend in a weak year for the category.

A Star is Born still seems to be in the driver's seat, but we know how quickly things can change. The film seems to be hitting culturally in a way that most recent best picture winners haven't, and that is a major strength in its corner. Roma is still right behind it, but I am curious to see how big Green Book can get. We're about a month away from the National Board of Review announcing their picks, and then we'll really be rolling along towards the ceremony.

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

September's ranking is in parenthesis.

October Oscar Predictions:

(Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book)

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. Green Book (5, +2)
4. The Favourite (3, -1)
5. Widows (6, +1)
6. Black Panther (7, +1)
7. Vice (9, +2)
8. BlackkKlansman (8, =)
9. First Man (3, -6)

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians

Outlook:
A Star is Born just seems way too big to falter at this point, but Roma will try to bring down Goliath. However I do think Roma will end up preventing A Star is Born from sweeping the big 5 awards. Green Book seems like a film that would have won this award in the 90's, but it could come close again if backlash starts against Star. First Man falls down the rankings since it didn't take off at the box office, but I do think it is safe for a nomination.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (1, =)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (2, =)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (4,=)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Outlook:

Roma will get its love here, I don't think there will be much of a fight. Cooper will win elsewhere.

(Viola Davis in Widows)

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (2, =)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (3, =)
4. Viola Davis, Widows (5, +1)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, -1)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

Outlook:

Gaga vs. Close vs. Colman. I think Gaga and Colman will win the Globes, Colman will win BAFTA and Close/Gaga will face off for SAG. We could be in for a very exciting race in this category. However if Colman takes SAG (like she could) or Gaga/Close take BAFTA then the race will likely be heading in the direction of that winner. I do wonder if the academy will be biased against Gaga, but the film is so loved and she seems to be charming people at the Q&As so I do think she is the frontrunner for now. Aparicio and Collette should do well with the critics, and could boost over McCarthy. At one point I thought McCarthy was winning, but her buzz seems to be fading. However it would be so strange if Richard E. Grant got in and she didn't.

(Ethan Hawke in First Reformed)

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1, =)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (2, =)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (4, +1)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (3, -1)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (New)

Out:

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (5)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Outlook:

Cooper is winning, the question now is who else gets invited to the party? Malek has great individual reviews, but the film is getting burned. He has the role, but I think Hawke may sneak in over him now.

(Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk)

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (3, =)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (New)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (4, -1)

Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (5)

Other Contenders:

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots 

Outlook:

Amy Adams should be very thankful that Olivia Colman went lead. She still has fierce competition, but it does feel like her time. King should contend, and her path would likely begin with SAG. Finally moved Weisz up since we know for sure that Colman is lead, all three ladies should be safe.

(Lin-Manuel Miranda in Mary Poppins Returns)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (2, +1)

2. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (3, =)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (2, -2)

5. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns (New)

Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (5)

Other Contenders:

Jonathan Pryce, The Wife

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Hugh Grant, Paddington 2

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Outlook:

Ali looks likely to be collecting his second Oscar in a couple months. Chalamet has the reviews to win, but he will likely be the only shot at a nomination for his film, and that plus his age will hold him back. Elliott could win, but I can't imagine A Star is Born winning three acting awards. He'd make sense though as a winner. Miranda is just a feeling I have, but a smarter bet would probably be with Pryce.

Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born

   

(Lady Gaga in A Star is Born)

    Let me start off by saying Bradley Cooper gives the performance of his career in A Star is Born, and I thought he was Oscar-worthy in Silver Linings Playbook and American Sniper. However even as a huge fan of Lady Gaga, I wasn't prepared for how great she wound up being as Ally. The unknown in the first half to the star of the second half, it's all so believable and she would be a great Oscar winner.

    I'm going to have a hard time deciding between Gaga and Toni Collette for my Best Actress award. Toni Collette is my favorite actress of all-time, giving her best performance and I really wasn't expecting her to have any competition, but Gaga IS THAT GREAT. That final shot is the stuff of legends.

                                                         (Toni Collette in Hereditary)

Oscar Predictions - September 26th (Post Venice/TIFF/Telluride)

While we wait for a few stragglers to screen (looking at you Vice/Cheney/Backseat/Whatever that Dick Cheney movie is going to be called!) everything has essentially been seen and judged by the powers that decide what films get to play in the awards season circus. This means we can try to wade through the water and further predict the upcoming Academy Awards.

The major remaining questions:
Will the Academy (along with SAG and BAFTA) treat Lady Gaga closer to how they treated Cher or Madonna? Cher of course was nominated for a couple acting Oscars and won for Moonstruck. Madonna won a golden globe for Evita, (over Frances McDormand the eventual Oscar winner for Fargo) but did not receive an Oscar nomination. I think the film is strong enough to get Gaga a nomination, but will the Academy make her wait for another film to get a win? The likely option is that they will be swept up in the love of the film and she will be a major contender for the win.

What's A24 going to champion the most? They have three out-there contenders. Hereditary, Eighth Grade and First Reformed are all unlikely contenders, but all three are fantastic with rave reviews behind them. Eighth Grade and First Reformed both seem likely contenders in Original Screenplay, but Hereditary star Toni Collette has the best reviews awhile being in the toughest film for the Academy. Ethan Hawke should be a major contender too for First Reformed. A24 has quickly become a powerhouse campaigner, but can they get all three films into contention? Can they get any? I hope so because all three films deserve to be at the Dolby. (Alert to my biases here, Toni Collette is my favorite working actress and Bo Burnham is someone that I've claimed as a genius for as long as I can remember.)

Vice is a film about Dick Cheney, we know nothing else about it. Is it as baity as most biopics? I imagine in the hands of Adam McKay it will be a bit subversive. I think Vice's best shot is Amy Adams in supporting.

Where are The Favourite ladies going????????? WHO IS LEAD????????

****I don't predict the tech categories until closer to showtime. ****

August's ranking is in parenthesis.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born (1, =)
2. Roma (2, =)
3. The Favourite (7, +4)
4. First Man (4, =)
5. Green Book (New)
6. Widows (New)
7. Black Panther (8, +1)
8. BlackkKlansman (6, -2)
9. Vice (10, +1)

Out:
The Other Side of the Wind
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Beautiful Boy

Other Contenders:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My Thoughts:
A Star is Born will be the more popular pick and I see it winning out over the artsier Roma in this category. The Favourite will be the dark house here.

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (2, +1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (4, +2)

3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman (3, =)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (New)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (5,=)

Out:

Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (1)

Other Contenders:

Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

Steve McQueen, Widows

Adam McKay, Vice

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

My Thoughts:

Roma vs. A Star is Born seems to be the battle of the night. Roma is supposed to be a technical marvel, and I don't see Cooper winning four Oscars in one night, but who knows?

Best Actress:
1. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born (3, +2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (New)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (2, -1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (1, -3)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (5, =)

Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary (4)

Other Contenders:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:
Glenn Close will have the overdue narrative, Colman has amazing reviews, McCarthy is the biggest movie star, Davis is entering Meryl Streep territory, but Gaga really feels like she's going to take this home. As strange as that would have seemed three months ago. Gaga will likely also pick up Best Original Song for "Shallow."

Best Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born (1,=)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (3, +1)

3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (5, +2)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (New)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, (4, -1)

Out:

John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind (2)

Other Contenders:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun

My Thoughts:

Cooper should be the easiest win of the night. Malek and Bale haven't been seen yet, but both roles should be baity enough to get in. Mortensen came out of nowhere, but would be a huge threat to win without Cooper here.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice (1, =)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (2, =)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (New)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (4, =)

5. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (3, -2)

Out: 

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (5)

Other Contenders:

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

My Thoughts:

Academy Award Winner Amy Adams sounds nice doesn't it? Only thing I see in the way of that is if Olivia Colman goes supporting. Rachel Weisz should probably be in this category, but I see them wanting to bring Crazy Rich Asians to the party and Yeoh seems like the best chance outside of like production design. 

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (4, +3)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (New)

3. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (2, -1)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (New)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (New)

Out:

Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (1)

Sam Rockwell, Vice (3)

Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back (5)

Other Contenders:

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

My Thoughts:

Chalamet has the best reviews in the category, but his film is very divisive and he might be the only nomination for it. (If he even gets in.) Ali has a crowd pleasing film, but he just won for Moonlight. He might still win anyway. Grant has a flashy role and is a veteran. He fits the mold that normally wins this category. Elliott should get carried in by the love of the film and the respect he carries. Jordan is a question mark, but he seems in a good place to be carried in by the love of Black Panther, plus he's been snubbed a couple times before. It just feels like his time finally.

Bye, Bye Best Popular Film Category

Today, the Academy decided to get rid of their new Best Popular Film category.

Can we all just agree that this is a great move. What would even be the cutoff for a "popular" film? It's not like the Academy is nominating films that make 200 bucks at the Box Office.

Plus it just seemed like a cheap way for them to try and get blockbusters nominated. By putting them in some new category with no prestige they wouldn't have brought a new audience. People can see through bogus attempts at pulling in bigger numbers. If you want those viewers then you'll have to get them into Best Picture. The Oscars just never recovered from snubbing The Dark Knight, they've changed so many policies and categories and just can't seem to hit something they like.

Now we just need them to turn back their decision of sending some of the tech categories to the commercial breaks. The audience for the Oscars wants to see the awards! Casual viewers can just watch the best of clips the next morning on Youtube. Someone that is watching the whole show, wants to see all the awards! People worked their whole lives for this moment and you can't show Best Editing on the main telecast? How lame! How about getting rid of a couple of the skits that always seem to be shoved into the broadcast. Did we really need Armie Hammer shooting hot dogs into an audience that just wanted to see A Wrinkle in Time?

Pre-Festival Oscar Predictions

                                               
We are just hours away from the beginning of the fall festival season. Venice, Telluride and Toronto will give us most of the information we need to know for the upcoming awards season, and for our own personal taste of things to see and turds to avoid.

The festivals should answer some of the big questions that are currently in limbo...Where will The Favourite ladies be placed? Is Lady Gaga a contender in Best Actress? Will The Other Side of The Wind be a final contender for the late, great Orson Welles? Are Beautiful Boy and Boy Erased strong enough to get Timmy Chalamet and Lucas Hedges back to the Dolby despite their age disadvantages? Jenkins, McQueen and Chazelle have big shoes to fill after their last films, will they hold up to the pressure?

These are my current predictions for Best Director, Best Picture, and the acting categories. I usually don't do the below-the-line categories until closer to the ceremony.

Best Picture:
1. A Star is Born
2. Roma
3. The Other Side of the Wind
4. First Man
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
6. BlackkKlansman
7. The Favourite
8. Black Panther
9. Beautiful Boy
10.Backseat

For now the buzz behind A Star is Born seems strong enough to push it to Best Picture. The Other Side of the Wind and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs are both question marks, Welles' film has been on the shelf for forty years and I'm not sure how the Academy will respond. The Coens film wasn't a film originally and will be interesting to see how their intended TV series transitions until a film. Roma is supposedly great AND timely, but will the Academy bite? Black Panther might get screwed by this "Best Popular Film" category as I do think it would have made the lineup before that category was invented, but now it might get pushed into that side category.

Best Director:
1. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
2. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
3. Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
4. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

They are getting another chance to reward Orson Welles...will they? I'm going to predict it, but I could easily see another Oscar win in this category for Chazelle, Cuarón or The Coens. However Spike Lee should be in contention here and could finally get a win in this category. Bradley Cooper will probably be happy with a nomination here and a win in Best Actor.

Best Actor:
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
2. John Huston, The Other Side of the Wind
3. Christian Bale, Backseat
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Cooper is an Academy favorite in a passion project, he sings, he drinks, I see this being his trophy. The rest of this category is a big ol' question mark. I'm very high on The Other Side of the Wind...perhaps too high? Backseat only exists through set photos, I feel less confident in its chances everyday. Malek seems great in Bohemian Rhapsody, will the Singer controversy strike the film though? Gosling should be good to go for First Man even if some test screening buzz wasn't so high.

Best Actress:
1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Glenn Close, The Wife
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Toni Collette, Hereditary
5. Viola Davis, Widows

McCarthy has had a rough year, but she's a former nominee and this seems up the Academy's alley. Close has the reviews and overdue narrative in her favor, but the film feels like a blip that's just keeping afloat because of Close. I guess it could be her Still Alice. Gaga has great buzz, but will she be invited to the party like Cher or be shut-out like the woman she's constantly compared with...Madonna. Collette has the reviews of the year, but is the film too controversial and out-there for them? I think A24 will get her in. Davis seems like she's entering Meryl Streep territory and will get in for most anything, but especially a McQueen film. I have Olivia Colman just missing out here, but she could win the category if the reviews are strong tomorrow.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
2. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
3. Sam Rockwell in Backseat
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back

This category is a crapshoot...I have no idea here. Nelson seems like the type of winner this category usually has, but he could be lead or not even have the juiciest part in the film. We don't know much yet. Chalamet has strong buzz, but the film might only contend for him and I'm not sure that's enough. His age was hard to bet against for a first nomination, let alone a second one. However he also seems like he could be a potential winner here. I've been predicting him all year, so I won't quit now. Hedges has three buzzy roles coming up, supporting in Ben is Back and Mid-90's and lead in Boy Erased. I think he gets in somewhere, but not sure where yet. This feels much more open than the lead category. I think Grant has a fun part and can coat-tail off of McCarthy. Rockwell gets his follow-up nod.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Amy Adams, Backseat
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Amy is coming for her Oscar.

2018 Oscar Predictions - July

Halfway through the year, it's always interesting to see how wrong these predictions end up being.

Based on things that have already played, buzz surrounding the pictures and the assumed taste of the Academy here are my predictions for best picture, director and the acting awards at next year's Oscars.

BEST PICTURE

(Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in A Star is Born)

1. A Star is Born

2. Cheney

3. First Man

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. Widows

6. The Favourite

7. Black Panther

8. Beautiful Boy

9. The Other Side of The Wind

The buzz is strong surrounding Bradley Cooper's directorial debut, and we all know a film about show business always appeals to the Academy. At this point I don't see anything else standing out for the win. I do think that the Academy finally embraces Marvel with Black Panther. Otherwise could First Man cross the finish line unlike its sister La La Land?

BEST ACTRESS

(Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

1. Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2. Lady Gaga in A Star is Born

3. Viola Davis in Widows

4. Toni Collette in Hereditary

5. Saoirse Ronan in Mary, Queen of Scots

McCarthy is a huge star that is well loved in the business. She has multiple Emmys and is a prior Oscar nominee. She just feels like a Sandra Bullock type of win. The movie also looks great and could contend in other categories. It took Cher multiple times before winning, so I don't see Gaga winning her first time out. Collette has RAVES and has worked with everyone, but the film seems outside of the Academy's wheelhouse.

BEST ACTOR

 (Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody)

1. Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born

2. Ryan Gosling in First Man

3. Christian Bale in Cheney

4. Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody

5. Lucas Hedges in Boy Erased

Cooper is already campaigning, he is involved in every aspect of the film and his performance is apparently the stand-out. All this combined puts him ahead of Gosling in my predictions. Bale is doing his transformation bit again, but he has an Oscar already and I'm not sure playing Dick Cheney will bring him a second. Rami Malek seems like a perfect fit for Freddie Mercury, and Lucas Hedges has an on-paper baity character. His age may hurt him, but he is a prior nominee and his Lady Bird co-star Timmy Chalamet got nominated in lead last year.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased)

1. Amy Adams in Cheney

2. Emma Stone in The Favourite

3. Olivia Colman in The Favourite

4. Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased

5. Claire Foy in First Man

Will it finally be Amy Adams time to claim Oscar? It looks like it. The Favourite seems to be a huge acting contender, we just don't know who will end up in what category. Kidman is in a career peak right now and the Oscars won't want to miss a chance to invite her to the party. Foy is getting strong early buzz.

Best Supporting Actor

(Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy)

1. Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy

2. Sam Elliott in A Star is Born

3. Sam Rockwell in Cheney

4. Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther

Beautiful Boy looks a lot like Ordinary People based upon the trailer, so I'm going to predict Chalamet to follow in fellow Timothy's (Hutton) footsteps and win in supporting. Rockwell will be back for his follow-up nod, Grant seems to have a flashy part and Elliott seems like he is due for a career nod. I'm not sure if I fully buy into Jordan happening, but this category is a bit of a wasteland right now and he has the reviews. 

Best Director

(Spike Lee)

1. Orson Welles for The Other Side of The Wind

2. Spike Lee for BlacKKKlansman

3. Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born

4. Damien Chazelle for First Man

5. Ryan Coogler for Black Panther

Orson Welles has been gone for over thirty years and did not win a directing prize. THIS IS THEIR CHANCE so if the film is good...DO IT! Otherwise Lee seems like a likely option over Chazelle winning a second so soon, Cooper winning for his debut or Coogler winning for a marvel pic.

The official stanning list of 2018

2018's award season is shaping up to be a very strong year for some of my favorite actors.

Toni Collette has received rave reviews for Hereditary. Collette is near the top of my list of favorite working actors (if not #1!) and is well overdue for a second Oscar nomination. Hopefully she can carry through up to the stage.

Saoirse Ronan has a strong-on-paper role in Mary, Queen of Scots. I'm sure she'll kill the role, hope the film lives up to her performance.

Lady Gaga isn't one of my favorite actresses, but she is one of my favorite singers and she has great buzz for A Star is Born. Maybe she'll follow Cher and Barbara Streisand to singer-turned-actress Oscar winners?

Amy Adams plays Lynn Cheney in Backseat. She's been nominated a thousand times and was snubbed for Arrival just a couple of years ago. The role seems juicy and with Adam McKay in charge it should be a little off-kilter as well. She should be a threat in supporting actress.

Ryan Gosling is one of my favorite actors, he chooses quirky roles and is thus often out of the picture for awards. However he was nominated for La La Land, and now plays Neil Armstrong in First Man from Damien Chazelle, and hopefully he will win the trophy.

Timmy Chalamet gave one of my favorite performances of all-time last year in Call Me By Your Name, and he seems to have a juicy role in Beautiful Boy. Test screenings have given him a ton of praise and hopefully the Academy makes up for their mistake last year.




AND OF COURSE there will be some performances off of my radar at this moment that become my favorites. This year though seems like a bizarre year where at least one of my favorites can bring home the statue.

My best picture winners of the decade.

Previously I had said that the best picture of 2016 was Toni Erdmann. I still think it's a great film, but I've decided that the film that has stuck with me the most and that I think about a lot is Arrival. Whether it's the current political situation or the emotional pull of the story or perhaps it's Amy Adams all-time great performance, but the film has stuck with me and is the true best picture of 2016. I do owe a rewatch to Moonlight a film that I respect, but it didn't work for me as much as I thought it would. Coming-of-age films are my favorite genre so it's surprising to me that it didn't blow me away like it did everyone else. That being said it's one of the top-tier best picture Oscar winners. (I also loved La La Land, don't shoot me!) For now however these are my best picture winners since 2010.

ETA: I also decided that Frances Ha is the rightful winner of 2013...sorry Blue is the Warmest Color!!!

I'll do a little post about each film in the coming days.

Arrival (2016) - Directed by Denis Villeneuve

Black Swan (2010) - Directed by Darren Aronofsky

Brooklyn (2015) - Directed by John Crowley

Call Me By Your Name (2017) - Directed by Luca Guadagnino 

Frances Ha (2013) - Directed by Noah Baumbach

Mommy (2014) - Directed by Xavier Dolan

A Separation (2011) - Directed by Asghar Farhadi

Zero Dark Thirty (2012) - Directed by Kathryn Bigelow

My acting winners this decade...so far!

A slow time for the movies right now as we wait for the summer season to kick-in. So with that in mind, I thought I'd review my acting winners for the best of the decade...so far!

Clearly the Academy and I differ in our opinion of the best. Only two of my winners would win the Oscar for this performance, Casey Affleck and Natalie Portman. However several were nominated with the lead actor category having the most representatives on Oscar night. Compare the lead actor category with five nominated performances next to one each in the supporting categories.

Casey Affleck as Lee Chandler in Manchester by the Sea (2016)

Timothée Chalamet as Elio in Call Me by Your Name (2017)

Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)

Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network (2010)

Michael Keaton as Riggan in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) (2014)

Logan Lerman as Charlie in The Perks of Being a Wallflower (2012)

Michael Shannon as Curtis in Take Shelter (2011)

Jacob Tremblay as Jack in Room (2015)

Amy Adams as Louise Banks in Arrival (2016)

Jessica Chastain as Maya in Zero Dark Thirty (2012)

Anne Dorval as Diane in Mommy (2014)

Adèle Exarchopoulos as Adele in Blue is the Warmest Color (2013)

Anna Paquin as Lisa Cohen in Margaret (2011)

Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in Black Swan (2010)

Saoirse Ronan as Eilis in Brooklyn (2015)

Saoirse Ronan as Christine "Lady Bird" McPherson in Lady Bird (2017)

James Franco as Alien in Spring Breakers (2013)

Walton Goggins as Sheriff Chris Mannix in The Hateful Eight (2015)

Andrew Garfield as Eduardo Saverin in The Social Network (2010)

Garrett Hedlund as Dean Moriarty in On the Road (2012)

André Holland as Kevin in Moonlight (2016)

Ezra Miller as Kevin in We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

Edward Norton as Mike in Birdman or (The Unexpected Virture of Ignorance) (2014)

Michael Stuhlbarg as Mr. Perlman in Call Me By Your Name (2017)

Rose Byrne as Helen in Bridesmaids (2011)

Rosemarie DeWitt as Hannah in Your Sister's Sister (2012)

Greta Gerwig as Brooke in Mistress America (2015)

Lesley Manville as Mary in Another Year (2010)

Laurie Metcalf as Marion McPherson in Lady Bird (2017)

Julianne Moore as Havana Segrand in Maps to the Stars (2014)

Molly Shannon as Joanne Mulcahey in Other People (2016)

Shailene Woodley as Aimee in The Spectacular Now (2013)

Best Performance of the Year

My favorite performance of the year for the last seven years... very strong decade so far. It will be hard to pick the best of the decade come 2020.

2017
Timothée Chalamet as Elio in Call Me by Your Name

Runner-Up: Saoirse Ronan as Christine "Lady Bird" McPherson in Lady Bird

2016

Amy Adams as Louise Banks in Arrival

Runner-Up: André Holland as Kevin in Moonlight

2015

Saoirse Ronan as Eilis in Brooklyn

Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig as Brooke in Mistress America

2014

 Anne Dorval as Diane in Mommy

Runner-Up: Julianne Moore as Havana Segrand in Maps to the Stars

2013

Leonardo DiCaprio as Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-Up: Adèle Exarchopoulos as Adèle in Blue is the Warmest Color 

2012

Jessica Chastain as Maya in Zero Dark Thirty

Runner-Up: Logan Lerman as Charlie in The Perks of Being a Wallflower

2011

Michael Shannon as Curtis in Take Shelter

Runner-Up: Anna Paquin as Lisa Cohen in Margaret

2010

Lesley Manville as Mary Smith in Another Year

Runner-Up: Natalie Portman as Nina Sayers in Black Swan