December Oscar Predictions

The critic awards have started for the 2017 awards season. 

The National Board of Review began the proceedings awarding The Post with Best Picture. Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks came along for the ride in the leading acting categories for the same film. Lady Bird walked away with Best Director for Greta Gerwig and Best Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf. Willem Dafoe won the first of his Supporting Actor awards for The Florida Project. 

NYFCC was next in line. Lady Bird had another big day winning Best Picture and Best Actress for Saoirse Ronan. Saoirse's Lady Bird co-star Timothee Chalamet won Best Actor for his raved work in Call Me by Your Name. The Florida Project's Sean Baker won Best Director. In an unexpected, but inspired pick Girls Trip star Tiffany Haddish won in Supporting Actress. Phantom Thread won Best Screenplay following up its Original Screenplay win at NBR. Willem Dafoe won again. 

Call Me by Your Name was the big winner at the LAFCA awards. The film won Best Picture, Chalamet won Best Actor and the film co-shared Best Director. The Shape of Water which shared the Best Director prize also won Best Actress for Sally Hawkins. Laurie Metcalf and Willem Dafoe won again in the supporting categories. Jordan Peele's Get Out won Best Screenplay. 

My interpretation is that Tiffany Haddish is very close to an Oscar nomination and I'd predict her to get in. Wonder if they will use her grapefruit monologue for the ceremony? Willem Dafoe might sweep the critics and since people seem to really be against Sam Rockwell's attempted redemption in Three Billboards then with the overdue factor I could easily see Dafoe winning this now. Also a chance for them to reward The Florida Project. Timmy Chalamet might come up short in his quest to become the youngest Best Actor winner ever, but he is going to put up a strong fight. It's too bad Gary Oldman just had to play Winston Churchill this year. Lady Bird seems like it could win Best Picture, and I never would have guessed that a month ago. Christopher Nolan or Spielberg still seem likely Best Director winners, but Gerwig should be good for a nomination now. I thought Allison Janney was going to stream-roll her way to the Oscar, but I'm leaning towards Metcalf now. Actress and Original Screenplay are a mystery right now. The Post seems very timely and very likely to be our winner for Picture.

Best Picture:

The Post

1. The Post (+3)

2. Lady Bird (+4)

3. Dunkirk (-1)

4. Call Me by Your Name (+1)

5. Get Out (+3)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-5)

7.  The Shape of Water (-4)

8. The Florida Project (-1)

Best Director:

Greta Gerwig 

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (=)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (+1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (NEW)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (=)

5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Actress:

Margot Robbie

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+2)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-2)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-1)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (=)

Best Actor:

Timothee Chalamet

1. Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour (=)

2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (=) 

3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (=)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (=)

5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (=)

Best Supporting Actress:

Tiffany Haddish

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)

2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-1)

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (=)

4. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (NEW)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Catherine Keener, Get Out

Best Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe (and Brooklyn Prince)

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (+2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (+1)

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (-4)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me by Your Name (=)

2. The Disaster Artist (=)

3. Mudbound (=)

4. Molly's Game (=)

5. Wonder (NEW)

Dropped Out:

Last Flag Flying

Original Screenplay:

1. Get Out (+4)

2. Lady Bird (=)

3. The Post (+1)

4. Phantom Thread (NEW)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Shape of Water