Oscar Predictions - On the Eve of the Golden Globes nominations.

          Wow, this year went quickly didn't it? Tomorrow brings us the nominations for the Golden Globes. The Golden Globes of course are picked by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and act as a huge precursor for the Academy Awards.

Since the race will be a little clearer after tomorrow I thought I'd take a quick jab at the acting Oscars since the Screen Actors Guild will be announcing their picks later in the week as well.

Predictions for the acting categories at the 2020 Academy Awards:

Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress:
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o, Us
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time...in Hollywood
John Lithgow, Bombshell

Best Supporting Actress:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

2020 Oscar Predictions - June 1st (Post Cannes)

The Cannes film festival wrapped up recently which means we are about halfway to the Oscars. I figured I'd do a quick update on my Oscar predictions since it's still so early. The main Oscar news out of Cannes was that Brad Pitt is a huge contender for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Antonio Banderas could contend for Pain & Glory. Tarantino was already my predicted winner before Cannes and I still think that is happening.


I'm going with the assumption that Nomadland, Wendy and The French Dispatch are all going to come out next year. Otherwise these would look quite different.

Best Picture:
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
The Irishman
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Report
Harriet
Jojo Rabbit
Rocketman
The Farewell

Best Director:
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Best Actress:
1. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
2. Awkwafina, The Farewell
3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
4. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Downhill
5. Charlize Theron, Fair & Balanced

Best Actor:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
4. Taron Egerton, Rocketman
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Laura Dern, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project
2. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
2. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
3. Al Pacino, The Irishman
4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman
5. John Lithgow, Fair & Balanced

Early Predictions for 2019 Oscars (February 2020 is so close!)

The smoke has just barely cleared from the 91st annual Academy Awards so of course we have to move on to the next one already. The next ceremony is about three weeks earlier next year which means late breaking films will have less time than usual to enter into the race. Usually a couple films every year are still filming late into spring and are able to make it in just under the wire. However that just seems a lot less likely with the nominations moving up next year. That will likely push several 2019 films into the next year. Even with this development 2019 looks stacked on paper with many big directors releasing their latest offerings. Jordan Peele's Us starts us off in just a couple weeks. Quentin Tarantino, Martin Scorsese, Pedro Almodóvar, and Steven Soderbergh all are prior Oscar winners releasing in this calendar year. Greta Gerwig releases her sophomore film Little Women, and we have potential new releases from Chloe Zhao, Benh Zeitlin, Todd Haynes and Wes Anderson.

It will be fun to see a year from now which films end up pulling ahead, but for now my gut is saying they finally reward Tarantino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He has never won the directing prize and there is nothing the Academy loves more than films about Hollywood.

For these predictions I am not including Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch or Benh Zeitlin's Wendy until we have confirmation that they will be released this year.

March Predictions (Predicted winners in BOLD)

Best Picture
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Little Women
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Jojo Rabbit
The Report
Pain and Glory
Rocketman
Us
Nomadland

Other Contenders:
The Last Thing He Wanted
The Laundromat
Dry Run
Knives Out
The King
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Harriet
Cats
Queen & Slim

Best Director
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Pedro Almodóvar, Pain and Glory

Other Contenders:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Todd Haynes, Dry Run
Steven Soderbergh, The Laundromat
Jordan Peele, Us
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Amy Adams, The Woman in the Window
Lupita Nyong'o, Us

Other Contenders:
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Downhill (I will predict her if it is a 2019 release.)
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Kristen Stewart, Against All Enemies
Charlize Theron, Fair & Balanced

Best Actor 
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Mark Ruffalo, Dry Run
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy

Other Contenders:
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, The Report
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Timothée Chalamet, The King
Matthew Rhys, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Will Ferrell, Downhill
Edward Norton, Motherless Brooklyn

Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Little Women
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Other Contenders:
Scarlett Johannson, Jojo Rabbit
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Meryl Streep, Little Women
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Janelle Monae, Harriet
Bryce Dallas Howard, Rocketman
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
Anne Hathaway, Dry Run
Toni Collette, Knives Out
Jamie Lee Curtis, Knives Out
Emma Watson, Little Women

Best Supporting Actor
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Jamie Bell, Rocketman
Timothy Olyphant, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Other Contenders:
Willem Dafoe, The Last Thing He Wanted
Timothée Chalamet, Little Women
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Richard Madden, Rocketman
John Lithgow, Fair & Balanced
Robert Pattinson, The King

Predicted Winners:
Picture: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Director: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Actress: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Actor: Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Little Women
Supporting Actor: Al Pacino, The Irishman
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adapted Screenplay: Little Women

My Film Awards for 2018

Another year has bit the dust and so it's time for my annual awards for the best in film. 2018 was a strange year in that it only delivered two five-star film in my ratings, but from top to bottom it was a strong year. Very few films really bombed for me (The Mule being the big one) and I even found many films to be unfairly maligned. The year before delivered seven five-star films. However things quickly fell off after those seven films so it was nice to have a good balance of solid films throughout the year. 

 Lead Actress was the toughest category like usual. I had originally made this post with Glenn Close making it in for The Wife, but couldn't hit submit without including Lady Gaga for her role as Ally in A Star is Born. Gaga replaced Close at the last second, but Close is likely winning the Oscar for her great turn and it will be well earned. Elsie Fisher, Melissa McCarthy and Helena Howard were also very close to making the list. I had already claimed Toni Collette as my favorite working actress prior to this year, but her career-best turn in Hereditary even blew away my expectations. The dinner scene should be shown in acting classes for years to come. 

Unlike the Oscars my Lead Actor category is full of performances from the younger crowd. Strange to think of Ryan Gosling as the third oldest nominee in a category. Bradley Cooper's growling rock star and Ethan Hawke's idealistic minister both put up a strong fight, but Charlie Plummer's performance as a young man dealing with loss was my choice for the best of the year. Lucas Hedges earned his third straight nomination but his first in lead for his turn in Boy Erased.

Timmy Chalamet wins his second acting award in as many years. Last year he won my Best Actor award for his all-time great performance in Call Me By Your Name and followed it up this year with his fantastic supporting turn as a young man dealing with addiction in Beautiful Boy. I have a feeling at age 23 this won't be the last acting award that I give to him. He's quickly proving to be one of cinema's best talents. 

Supporting Actress went to Emma Stone for her turn as the class climbing Abigail in The Favourite. I had trouble deciding if she was lead or supporting (along with Weisz and Colman from the same film and Erivo as well.) Ultimately went along with where the studio campaigned her which was supporting to Olivia Colman's Queen Anne. This is Stone's first win after four nominations. 

Best Director was another hard category this year as I found many strong choices without a clear cut set of nominees. Paul Schrader, Barry Jenkins, Yorgos Lanthimos and Lee Chang-dong were all strong choices that I had to leave just on the outside. Ultimately I went with Spike Lee for BlackkKlansman.

Original Screenplay was the single greatest challenge in deciding between The Favourite, First Reformed and Eighth Grade. Adapted was much easier as BlackkKlansman was the winner for me there with Can You Ever Forgive Me? a close second.

Anyway enough of my rambling, here are my awards for the best films of 2018. Winners are in BOLD and are also listed at the end.

Thanks for reading and I hope this list might inspire you to see a film or two that you may have avoided otherwise. 

Best Picture

BlackkKlansman

Burning

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

Hereditary

Minding the Gap

Best Actress

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Carey Mulligan, Wildlife

Charlize Theron, Tully

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Charlie Plummer, Lean on Pete

Nick Robinson, Love, Simon

Best Supporting Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Blake Lively, A Simple Favor

Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Na-kel Smith, Mid90s

Alex Wolff, Hereditary

Steven Yeun, Burning

Best Director

Ari Aster, Hereditary

Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade

Josephine Decker, Madeline's Madeline

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman 

Chloé Zhao, The Rider

Best Score

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Madeline's Madeline

Suspiria

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

First Reformed

Hereditary

Sorry To Bother You

Tully

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlackkKlansman

Burning

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

If Beale Street Could Talk

The Tale

Widows

Best Editing

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Minding The Gap

The Other Side of the Wind

Roma

Suspiria

Best Cinematography

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

If Beale Street Could Talk

Madeline's Madeline

Minding the Gap

The Rider

Roma

Production Design

Black Panther

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Paddington 2

Roma

Suspiria

Best Original Song

"Alfie's Song (Not So Typical Love Song)" (Bleachers) 

from

Love, Simon

"All The Stars" (Kendrick Lamar & Sza)

from Black Panther

"Always Remember Us This Way" (Lady Gaga)

from A Star is Born

"Revelation" (Troye Sivan & Jonsi)

from Boy Erased

"Shallow" (Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper)

from A Star is Born

"Suspirium" (Thom Yorke) 

from Suspiria

List of Winners:

Best Picture: Hereditary

Best Director: Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman

Best Actress: Toni Collette, Hereditary

Best Actor: Charlie Plummer, Lean on Pete

Best Supporting Actress: Emma Stone, The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Best Original Screenplay: The Favourite

Best Adapted Screenplay: BlackkKlansman

Best Editing: The Other Side of the Wind

Best Cinematography: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Production Design: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Score: If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Original Song: "Always Remember Us This Way" from A Star is Born