I'll post my awards for 2016 on Sunday, but overall the Academy did a pretty solid job this year. While the BP nominees aren't the nine films I would of selected, overall there isn't one bad film in the bunch. Fences comes in as the weakest selection for me, but that script is just so powerful that you could never say it was a bad film.
Much has been already said about La La Land joining All About Eve and Titanic as the films with the most Oscar nominations EVER. All About Eve is a Top-5 all-time film in my opinion, and Titanic made enough money to fill up the ocean. La La Land is fantastic and I have a hard time debating its merit as a most-nominated film. Is it an all-time great? Probably not. However it happened to come along at the right time and it is more than worthy of winning Best Picture this year. Oh yeah, spoiler alert of the year, IT'S WINNING.
Best Actress is an extremely solid category this year. I'll be watching Loving between now and Sunday, so I haven't seen Ruth Negga in action yet. I'm sure she is fantastic. Huppert, Stone and Portman all give brilliant performances in their respective films. All would be solid winners most years. Meryl is great in Florence Foster Jenkins as well, even if it wasn't my cup of tea as a film overall. Of course I'll forever be shouting from the rooftops how Amy Adams was robbed for Arrival, but this category is tremendous.
Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington are battling it out in the tightest category of the night for Best Actor. Casey has been an early favorite since Sundance last year, but his personal baggage and subtle role have slowed down his victory roll. The character of Lee Chandler is not a role that usually wins Oscars. The Oscars aren't known for loving subtle performances. Affleck's performance is that towering that he has overcome that hold-up. However his past personal trouble and caveman like appearances on the red carpet have voices speaking up about him losing the prize. His biggest competition is Denzel Washington who has a role that screams "OSCAR!" However Denzel already has two Oscars, he would join rare company in winning a third. I do see Denzel winning a third Oscar before he retires, but does it come this weekend? Garfield and Gosling are fantastic in their roles, but are just here for the party. Viggo is always great in everything, but I hated Captain Fantastic with every fiber of my being. Glad for Viggo to return though. Plus there really was no alternative for sixth place.
The Supporting categories are pretty locked and loaded. Supporting Actress will go to Viola Davis who it feels like has been owed an Oscar since Doubt. Ali will likely be winning Supporting Actor, but watch out for Dev Patel who has a slight chance.
Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea seem likely to be rewarded in the Screenplay categories and it has felt that way for quite awhile now. Lion is a strong dark horse in Adapted against Moonlight, and there is always a strong chance that La La Land sweeps Original Screenplay along with everything else. Wouldn't be shocked at all to see Lion and La La Land win.
For the tech categories I expect La La Land to basically sweep everything with a sound prize or two going to Hacksaw Ridge.
Speaking of Hacksaw Ridge, can we believe that the Academy went for Mel Gibson in Best Director? He directs the hell out of Hacksaw Ridge, but I really never thought he would make his return to any sort of in-crowd event. It will be interesting to see his reception. Either way Chazelle is winning that category.
Final Predictions:
Best Picture: La La Land
Runner-Up: Moonlight
Best Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Runner-Up: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Fences
Runner-Up: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Best Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land
Runner-Up: Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Runner-Up: Dev Patel, Lion
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea by Kenneth Lonergan
Runner-Up: La La Land by Damien Chazelle
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight by Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney
Runner-Up: Lion by Luke Davies
Cinematography: Linus Sandgren, La La Land
Runner-Up: Greig Fraser, Lion
Costume Design: Mary Zophres, La La Land
Runner-Up: Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge
Runner-Up: La La Land
Film Editing: Tom Cross, La La Land
Runner-Up: Joe Walker, Arrival
Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Runner-Up: La La Land
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Runner-Up: Doctor Strange
Make-Up and Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Runner-Up: Suicide Squad
Original Song: "City of Stars" from La La Land
Runner-Up: "How Far I'll Go" from Moana
Original Score: Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
Runner-Up: Thomas Newman, Passengers
Documentary: 13th
Runner-Up: O.J.: Made in America
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Runner-Up: Toni Erdmann
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Runner-Up: The Red Turtle
Production Design: La La Land
Runner-Up: Passengers
Enjoy the show!
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