Halfway through the year, it's always interesting to see how wrong these predictions end up being.
Based on things that have already played, buzz surrounding the pictures and the assumed taste of the Academy here are my predictions for best picture, director and the acting awards at next year's Oscars.
BEST PICTURE
(Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in A Star is Born)
1. A Star is Born
2. Cheney
3. First Man
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Widows
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. Beautiful Boy
9. The Other Side of The Wind
The buzz is strong surrounding Bradley Cooper's directorial debut, and we all know a film about show business always appeals to the Academy. At this point I don't see anything else standing out for the win. I do think that the Academy finally embraces Marvel with Black Panther. Otherwise could First Man cross the finish line unlike its sister La La Land?
BEST ACTRESS
(Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
1. Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Lady Gaga in A Star is Born
3. Viola Davis in Widows
4. Toni Collette in Hereditary
5. Saoirse Ronan in Mary, Queen of Scots
McCarthy is a huge star that is well loved in the business. She has multiple Emmys and is a prior Oscar nominee. She just feels like a Sandra Bullock type of win. The movie also looks great and could contend in other categories. It took Cher multiple times before winning, so I don't see Gaga winning her first time out. Collette has RAVES and has worked with everyone, but the film seems outside of the Academy's wheelhouse.
BEST ACTOR
(Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody)
1. Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born
2. Ryan Gosling in First Man
3. Christian Bale in Cheney
4. Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Lucas Hedges in Boy Erased
Cooper is already campaigning, he is involved in every aspect of the film and his performance is apparently the stand-out. All this combined puts him ahead of Gosling in my predictions. Bale is doing his transformation bit again, but he has an Oscar already and I'm not sure playing Dick Cheney will bring him a second. Rami Malek seems like a perfect fit for Freddie Mercury, and Lucas Hedges has an on-paper baity character. His age may hurt him, but he is a prior nominee and his Lady Bird co-star Timmy Chalamet got nominated in lead last year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
(Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased)
1. Amy Adams in Cheney
2. Emma Stone in The Favourite
3. Olivia Colman in The Favourite
4. Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased
5. Claire Foy in First Man
Will it finally be Amy Adams time to claim Oscar? It looks like it. The Favourite seems to be a huge acting contender, we just don't know who will end up in what category. Kidman is in a career peak right now and the Oscars won't want to miss a chance to invite her to the party. Foy is getting strong early buzz.
Best Supporting Actor
(Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy)
1. Timothée Chalamet in Beautiful Boy
2. Sam Elliott in A Star is Born
3. Sam Rockwell in Cheney
4. Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther
Beautiful Boy looks a lot like Ordinary People based upon the trailer, so I'm going to predict Chalamet to follow in fellow Timothy's (Hutton) footsteps and win in supporting. Rockwell will be back for his follow-up nod, Grant seems to have a flashy part and Elliott seems like he is due for a career nod. I'm not sure if I fully buy into Jordan happening, but this category is a bit of a wasteland right now and he has the reviews.
Best Director
(Spike Lee)
1. Orson Welles for The Other Side of The Wind
2. Spike Lee for BlacKKKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
4. Damien Chazelle for First Man
5. Ryan Coogler for Black Panther
Orson Welles has been gone for over thirty years and did not win a directing prize. THIS IS THEIR CHANCE so if the film is good...DO IT! Otherwise Lee seems like a likely option over Chazelle winning a second so soon, Cooper winning for his debut or Coogler winning for a marvel pic.
