The year began with Sundance launching a couple of early contenders as it usually does, however The Birth of a Nation is already in a huge controversy with its Director/Writer/Star Nate Parker's 17 year old rape case coming back into the limelight. With recent developments coming to light the film will likely be too toxic for the Academy to touch. This did seem like a big bet for Picture/Director/Actor/Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay nominations at the very least, the circumstances surrounding Parker and the victim will more than likely be a cloud around the film forever. The other major film to debut in Sundance was Manchester by the Sea, which is Kenneth Lonergan's follow-up to his 2011 masterpiece, Margaret. The film received rave reviews, but especially for it's acting and seems prime to take home at least one statuette.
I'll just be sticking to Picture, Director, Adapted/Original Screenplay and the acting categories for now.
Best Picture:
This category is completely up in the air at this point. In theory, Silence seems like a good bet to take home the prize, but there is still no confirmation that it is indeed coming out this year. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk also seems like a good bet, but Ang Lee has already won two directing Oscars without winning Best Picture, and I'm not sure this will be the film to get him that prize. Moonlight has good buzz and looks like it's going to be phenomenal, however that doesn't seem like a film that the Academy will embrace with its top prize. For now, I'm leaning towards Damien Chazelle's La La Land. While I wasn't as high on Whiplash as everyone else was, I did see a lot of promise and this film just looks killer so far. The Academy hasn't embraced a musical with its top prize since Chicago, but this film is about Hollywood and we know they love that.
1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence
4. Loving
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Moonlight
7. Arrival
8. Fences
Best Director:
Lately the Picture/Director split has been happening readily. And while Ang Lee has proven to be a pro with winning in splits (Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi both winning Director, but losing Picture) and with Martin Scorsese being in the mix, a split could happen again. However if La La Land is winning Picture, I see it having a hard time losing Director. Apparently I'm going all in with La La Land.
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
5. Denis Villenueve, Arrival
Best Actor:
This category is a complete disaster this year. Last year Leonardo DiCaprio steamrolled to his Oscar, but this year we don't have that contender yet. Bryan Cranston is looming in the distance with Wakefield, but without a distributor, I'm not predicting it. Denzel won a tony for this role on Broadway, but this would be his 3rd Oscar, and I really think it's going to be the Viola show. Affleck has the reviews, but the role seems outside of the Academy's usual winners in this category. Garfield and Gosling both are younger than the Academy likes in this category and both have been snubbed in the past when hitting almost all of the precursors. (The Social Network and Lars and the Real Girl.) Keaton didn't win when he starred in the Best Picture winner, so I find it hard to see him winning for this. It will be interesting to see where this goes. Without the controversy, Nate Parker probably would've won this award. Tom Hanks got snubbed for Captain Phillips, but he's starring in a Clint Eastwood film. It will be seen, it just depends on if the role is there.
1. Denzel Washington, Fences
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3. Andrew Garfield, Silence
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
5. Tom Hanks, Sully
Best Actress:
Unless Fences gets pushed to 2017, Viola Davis will be winning this award. She won the Tony on Broadway, and with her narrative between finishing in 2nd in 2008 and 2011, plus she can become just the second African-American woman to win Best Actress. She's also collecting Emmys like candy, so the stars will be aligning for her unless something odd happens. It will be interesting to see who survives the battle between Amy Adams, Annette Benning, Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Taraji P. Henson, Meryl Streep and Emily Blunt.
1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Emma Stone, La La Land
3. Ruth Negga, Loving
4. Amy Adams, Arrival
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actor:
Honestly if Silence doesn't come out this year, then it could be a fun category because it seems so desolate that all the awards bodies could present different nominees. However I'm assuming Silence will be out in 2016, and Liam Neeson will sweep. It's a shame that John Goodman and Alden Ehrenreich will both be looked over for their performances. Armie Hammer also would have likely been up for a nomination for The Birth of a Nation,and he is one of the few parts of the film I could see sneaking back into the conversation.
1. Liam Neeson, Silence
2. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
5. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
Best Supporting Actress:
This is shaping up to be a battle between Michelle Williams and Naomie Harris. I think this will be a tight battle until the end, but Michelle Williams would be on her 4th nomination which might be enough to put her over the edge. Aja Naomi King is the other part of The Birth of a Nation, that may make her way back into awards conversation.
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion
Original Screenplay:
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. La La Land
4. 20th Century Women
5. Loving
Adapted Screenplay:
1. Fences
2. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence
4. Arrival
5. Love & Friendship
